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GPT-4 and professional benchmarks: the wrong answer to the wrong question

(aisnakeoil.substack.com)
340 points agomez314 | 1 comments | 21 Mar 23 13:12 UTC | HN request time: 4.386s | source
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thwayunion ◴[21 Mar 23 13:28 UTC] No.35245821[source]▶
Absolutely correct.

We already know this is about self-driving cars. Passing a driver's test was already possible in 2015 or so, but SDCs clearly aren't ready for L5 deployment even today.

There are also a lot of excellent examples of failure modes in object detection benchmarks.

Tests, such as driver's tests or standardized exams, are designed for humans. They make a lot of entirely implicit assumptions about failure modes and gaps in knowledge that are uniquely human. Automated systems work differently. They don't fail in the same way that humans fail, and therefore need different benchmarks.

Designing good benchmarks that probe GPT systems for common failure modes and weaknesses is actually quite difficult. Much more difficult than designing or training these systems, IME.

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fatherzine ◴[21 Mar 23 17:13 UTC] No.35249238[source]▶
"SDCs clearly aren't ready for L5 deployment" Apologies for the tangent to the OP topic. The metric to watch is 'insurance damage per million miles driven'. At some point SDCs will overperform the human driver pool, possibly by a large margin. Wouldn't that be the point where SDCs are clearly ready for L5? Not even sure if that point is in the past or the future, does anyone -- not named Elon ;) -- have reasonably up-to-date trend charts and willing to share?
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1. 542354234235 ◴[21 Mar 23 18:21 UTC] No.35250258[source]▶
>Wouldn't that be the point where SDCs are clearly ready for L5?

On its own, no. As long as SDCs operate in limited areas and limited environments, then they are specifically avoiding the most difficult driving situations that would be most likely to lead to an accident. If you never deploy SDCs during snowy conditions, you aren't getting a full picture of what a full L5 SDC failure rate would be.

This also takes a single automated system and compares it to the average of individual humans. Being better than all drivers, including all the terrible ones, may not be quite up to the safety standards of most people.

Finally, this is overall a myopic approach to a very complex problem i.e. transportation. Is it really the best approach to attempt to just replace all human operated cars with driverless cars? Is trying to move hundreds of thousands of people in individuals cars from suburbs to a dense city center in the morning, and back in the evening really a good way to set up our infrastructure?