GPT-4 and professional benchmarks: the wrong answer to the wrong question

I don't think compression and intelligence can be disentangled in this way.

Agree: compression is straightforwardly prediction.

Prediction is intelligence when you're able to do it well across disparate novel tasks.

(Of course definitions are idiosyncratic, but I'm curious if anyone disagrees with these ones.)

It seems that intelligence also is about explanation, apart from prediction. Humans not just try to predict future evidence from current evidence, or use the current evidence to confirm given hypotheses, but they also try to find an hypothesis which best explains this evidence. It's not quite clear how explanation would relate to compression.

Explanation is decompression, using a limited set of tokens to model a more complex output

Explanation is when the number of bits in your model is smaller than the number of bits in the system. To understand is to have a compression good enough to store in your working memory.

> Prediction is intelligence

Depends on your definition of "intelligence". The big missing part is the ability to explore, try new things, to act (enactivism). Basically to become part of the environment, instead of being a sealed box with frozen weights.

By predicting characters, the system had to master, digest, maybe even understand, all the cultural human knowledge it got in text form. Now let's aim for the process that generated this knowledge in the first place.