“How America took out the Nord Stream pipeline”

Not a few hours later, 17 hours apart. No military is going to arrange for two pipes in the same general area to be destroyed 17 hours apart. 17 hours to find the second floating sonar device. 17 hours to get caught with your pants down.

I'm saying this as former US military here. the Idea that in the middle of a OPORD, of any kind, POTUS would come in last minute and change a detail, like an explosive on a timer (fairly simple,) to what is effectively some new technology no one has ever heard of, that allows for remote sonar detonations is Tom Clancy stuff.

In the United States Military, there's this thing called the Chain of Command.

This exercise was under the U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa, which is under the United States European Command & United States Africa Command.

The "work" that being described here would have been under SOCOM (United States Special Operations Command), which is the only command that could do this kind of work, they are the only ones that even have the assets to do this kind of work and theres absolutely no mention of that in this piece.

It's complete conjecture and should absolutely be treated as such until theres hard evidence.

Since it was established that the destruction was caused by explosives, what is your argument?

The US is too competent to do such a bad job (17 hours apart and only 3 of 4 pipes destroyed)?

Does this imply we have a rogue actor or insufficiently equipped one to blame? Who?

Was it established that it was caused by explosives? The last time the US did this, it was by adding malicious code into pipeline control software (before the USSR stole the software from a US company).

He is right that sonar buoy detonation thing sounds like absolute bullshit. Incredibly risky and 17 hours.. I mean you want to do this, send a submarine, it fires few torpedoes. No more pipeline. Fast, simple, reliable.

Let's say I am a Ukranian patriot, with few million in the bank. I bet given few month I could put together a team of divers to plant some C4 with a simple timer and blow this thing to hell. Or Polish patriot, or Polish government or any of the Baltic states. It is an existential struggle for all of them, and russkie understand one thing and one thing only, this was a very clear communication straight to Putin.

I think his argument is that the explanation offered by the author is implausible. When someone comes forward with such claims, the main means of determining it's veracity is to verify the details provided. Typically fabrications will contain small inconsistencies that don't match facts known only to investigators, verified witnesses, or experts in the subject matter.

I think their implication is that none of us really know what happened, much less the author of this article.

I think it’s the Polish. Apparently their relationship with Russia is similar to a very angry pitbull has with steak. They were mass rapes by the Soviets at the end of World War II and horrible conditions for the Polish during the Soviet empire.

Polish friends say there’s no shortage of young men who want the glory of blowing up something owned by the people who gang raped Grandma.

A lot of people in this thread are making the "no knife no charge" argument.

The rest of us in the world live in reality and just assume the US did this.

Biden threatened it and then it happened. Shocked Pikachu face.

Sure, it could have been someone else, but does it even matter at this point?

PS some of us still remember the rainbow warrior, this move, like that move, has your yank cia stench all over it.

I can totally see it being the Polish, but I don't think there is a clear finger that points to anyone (including the US and Russia.) This does sound more plausible than the US. If the US did it, it would literally be done with support of other NATO allies (including Germany itself, and in secret.) It's simply too risky for them to end up destroying the entire NATO relationship, which they would not risk at this juncture...so it doesn't really make sense. Poland on the other hand, would still be a buffer between the rest of Europe and Russia even if Ukraine falls...so they have a lot less to lose, because no one is going to really punish them. I still feel it as -probably- Russia, but I don't think there is enough evidence, and it's very likely we'll just never know. The US theory to me is just logically bunk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pipeline_accidents # really should be called incidents, not accidents.

    Pipelines of all types are fragile things and break all the time for numerous reasons.

  Do not attribute to malice which can be explained by negligence/incompetence with out evidence.

  The Nordstream pipelines were not in operation, which indicated the need for maintenance. The pipelines, which carry methane under saltwater, require frequent preventive maintenance checks and services, however, it is believed that these checks may have been neglected since the Russians took over. The pipelines were officially shut down for maintenance in July 2020 and July 2021, but were met with various issues and disruptions in gas flow.

  Given the pressurized and highly flammable nature of the pipelines, it is imperative to determine the causes of these issues. 
  Sabotage cannot be ruled out, especially given the current geopolitical climate.

  However, the most likely cause could be related to the formation of methane hydrates, which can cause blockages in the pipeline known as hydrate plugs. These plugs can be difficult to remove and require a slow and simultaneous depressurization from both ends of the pipeline.

  Remember, both sides, this is important!

  If the depressurization is not carried out correctly, it can result in the rapid launch of the hydrate plug towards the depressurized side, causing significant damage to the pipeline. The Diesel Effect, which occurs when the valves are closed ahead of the fast-moving plug, can also cause significant damage. It is crucial that the removal of hydrate plugs be carried out by experienced professionals, given the potential consequences of a failure to do so.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/hydrate-nat...

https://www.stssensors.com/blog/2020/07/01/the-diesel-effect...

EDIT: Formatting

SOCOM does actually get a brief mention, but in a way that makes the whole story even less plausible. At the beginning, Hersh claims that the divers used were chosen because they were just "Navy only" and not part of SOCOM, which is allegedly a legal loophole to avoid having to report the activity to the Gang of Eight in Congress, apparently done because of concerns about leaks.

Setting aside how legally questionable that premise sounds, especially because the entire rest of the article is full of references to the involvement of clandestine organizations beyond "Navy only", Hersh then goes on to describe an operation apparently involving an absolute clown car full of a bunch of other people including 3 foreign countries, at least some people running a major NATO exercise, and what sounds like half the Norwegian Navy. Operations so secret you can't tell 8 Congressional leaders (as required by law) but you can tell Norway, Denmark, and Sweden about do not sound like a thing.

Here's the rub, SOCOM via JSOC is the only command that POTUS has any sway over (Thanks Obama.). The more you read the less plausible any of this is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Joint_Special_Ope....

> Operations so secret you can't tell 8 Congressional leaders (as required by law) but you can tell Norway, Denmark, and Sweden about do not sound like a thing.

Exactly!

I'd like to preface everything that Ive written thus far with the following.

Yes, I'm former military.

The United States does shady things and has a long history of doing so. The United States is a capitalist imperialist hell-scape for a lot of people. Counties/states do not have friends, they have interests.

That being said, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

What was written in that piece does not mesh at all with what my mental model of how the US military work, How pipelines work, etc.

Yeah right, and you would be picked up by a Russian patrol boat pretty quickly. The article doesn't insinuate that the operation itself is difficult, but to do it without anyone detecting it and not leaving enough of a trace that things can be tracked back to you.

> Was it established that it was caused by explosives?

Yes.

Given the state of the Russian Navy, I wouldn't trust them to patrol a pond, let alone the Baltic Sea.

The President sets the strategy for all of the combatant commands through the National Security Strategy and ultimately every military action has a line drawn to the President through the SecDef. Saying POTUS doesn't have away over the other COCOMs is misleading at best. (To be clear, this article is still bs, having "Navy only" divers doesn't make any sense in the way operations are done in the US military.)

I immediately told my friends that it could have been the danish submarine guy who killed tournalist and was supposedly in prison, when actually an intelligence agency got him out to do this task. It was fun how far we could speculate this random fake story. It was at least as plausible as this story.

Yeah, Poles hate Russians, and the polling numbers back it up. Pew found 94% of Poles think Russia is a "major threat", and 91% have "very unfavorable views of Russia".

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/06/22/spotlight-on-p...

> It's simply too risky for them to end up destroying the entire NATO relationship

and also the pipelines area already denied being approved by germany at the time.

The risk of blowing it up to make it irreversible seems to lack any real gains vs the risk it entails.

Was it ever established whether the fourth pipeline was even attacked? Did it have explosives attached that didn't go off? (And if so do they have a convenient "made in ..." sticker?)

Would have been interesting to hear the alleged source give a reason for only blowing up 3 of 4 pipes in a plan they call "perfect".

I said this in another comment, but the Polish would be very stupid to do something like that, which jeopardises the German economy.

I think it's moderately unlikely. This is obviously something that many Polish people would cheer for, but would their actual government really be that stupid?

I find it hard to imagine.

Is there any plausible scenario where Ukraine did it, with or without help?

What I'm trying to illustrate is that POTUS isn't sitting in on OPORDs, The Joint Chiefs of Staff advise the president on all military matters, the president goes through them, the Secretary of Defense, etc.

to counter, a lot of people in this thread are saying that the united states is the only country that benefits, (hind sight is 20/20), therefor they must have done it. And all of this is without a shred of evidence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2 ^ a lot of different parties, including the US didn't want this to happen.

How many times has Russias the past 30 years weaponized its gas pipelines? Speak to Moldova, or Estonia, or Ukraine. https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/russia-using-energy-weapon-agai...

I'm not saying the Russians did it, I personally think it was a maintenance accident.

As not ex military, the article sounds plausible. Likely, even.

My main objection is, who would be the source? It sounds like there are maybe 20 people in the world who would have this level of information. Each of those individuals would presumably have been selected largely on the basis of commitment to national security. That's why people sign up for these roles in the first place. None of these individuals have anything in particular to gain by leaking this information. All of them have _a lot_ to lose by the same.

I can't imagine any of these individuals as the source, which throws the rest of the story out the window. Even if it ends up being true in the end.