←back to thread

688 points hunglee2 | 9 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source | bottom
Show context
VincentEvans ◴[] No.34713402[source]
Gazprom, Russian gas monopoly, has on Kremlin’s orders first threatened to, and then suspended gas supplies to Europe in an attempt to blackmail it to stop supporting Ukraine under a threat of, as they put it, “freezing Europe”. In the process unilaterally breaking existing delivery contracts. There were no Western sanctions targeting Russian gas - it was entirely a political operation initiated by Russian government, “weaponizing energy supplies” as it often referred to, in the course of hybrid war.

Kremlin has miscalculated - Europe was able to largely avoid the intended crisis, while simultaneously Gazprom lost its largest market. The pivot from Russian supplies did come at a significant cost though.

Now that the Western sanctions are strangling Russian economy - if Gazprom wanted to come back to European market - they would be first greeted by billions of dollars of contract charges in arbitration courts.

It has long became obvious that Gazprom will likely attempt to use claims of force majeure to try to avoid financial penalties. And as it became customary for Russia - start preparing fertile ground in the courts of public opinion by planting various stories misdirecting the blame and muddying the waters.

replies(8): >>34713490 #>>34714100 #>>34714254 #>>34714669 #>>34714933 #>>34715097 #>>34715397 #>>34715449 #
steponlego ◴[] No.34713490[source]
Why don't we just properly view the gas reductions for what they are - a form of sanctioning?
replies(3): >>34713503 #>>34713782 #>>34714678 #
1. VincentEvans ◴[] No.34713503[source]
Kremlin sanctioned themselves? Or are you presenting the suspension of gas supplies to Europe by Russia as a sort of “retaliatory sanctions”? That’s fine of course, it’s like North Korea cutting off themselves from the world and starving as a way to punish the world for interfering in its internal matters as they relate to nuclear weapons.
replies(3): >>34713759 #>>34715654 #>>34715880 #
2. steponlego ◴[] No.34713759[source]
Deliberately misunderstanding what I said won't change my opinion or anybody else's.
replies(3): >>34713791 #>>34713888 #>>34713930 #
3. VincentEvans ◴[] No.34713791[source]
Don’t pout but rather explain what you meant.
replies(1): >>34713914 #
4. nawgz ◴[] No.34713888[source]
Your comment seems to be deliberately misunderstanding who triggered the gas reduction, which is why others opinion of the comment is quite low
5. PantaloonFlames ◴[] No.34713914{3}[source]
I will try to restate what I understood from VincentEvans' post.

Gazprom unilaterally cut off gas supplies at the direction of the Kremlin, "weaponizing energy supplies" to Europe.

At some point, if Gazprom wanted to come back to European market - they would be first greeted by billions of dollars of contract charges in arbitration courts.

(and I guess the number of billions is probably in the 10's or more)

Therefore, to avoid that fate, Gazprom or the Kremlin surreptitiously blew up Nordstream2 themselves, in order to be able, later, to claim in court that the could not have resumed gas deliveries if they wanted to. This would be an argument against the billions in contract charges. Basically, they incur the cost of blowing up (and later repairing, one presumes) their own pipeline in order to avoid the cost of the fines and legal sanctions for suspending gas delivery unilaterally.

Summarized as: the Kremlin miscalculated in suspending gas delivery, and by blowing up the pipeline is trying to preserve some future access to the European market, after current hostilities cease.

6. brookst ◴[] No.34713930[source]
I for one have no idea what you meant, and who you’re suggesting was sanctioning who in what manner for what purpose.
7. kornhole ◴[] No.34715654[source]
If you know the way the US often imposes sanctions, it entails prohibition of both buying and selling from sanctioned parties. I work on many sales and procurement systems in the US that call services such as Amber Road or Descartes that scan the government provided lists of sanctioned parties before a PO or SO can be placed, delivered, or billed. Russia not selling its gas to an adversary is a simple sanction of this kind.
8. andrewflnr ◴[] No.34715880[source]
They're saying the US did it, in coordination with their "other" sanctions, in agreement with the article and opposition to the commenter. I don't think this was a hard puzzle.
replies(1): >>34717703 #
9. VincentEvans ◴[] No.34717703[source]
Wasn’t clear to me, but if so - I have already more than covered my thoughts on the subject. Glad that’s settled.