The Big [Censored] Theory

Non-heterosexual images (and masturbation) are anathema to China's leadership because China is facing a population decline, due to very low fertility.[1] [2]

Internally produced TV in China has been censored for portraying "effeminate men".[3] The CCP has also, er, "encouraged", women to spend less time on social media and shopping. Internally the CCP says members must have three children.[4]

1. Here is military age population: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/15-49...

2. Here is fertility rate. The green line is "replacement", i.e. enough for a stable population: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/FERT/TOT/...

3. https://www.npr.org/2021/09/02/1033687586/china-ban-effemina...

4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-child_policy

> Non-heterosexual images (and masturbation) are anathema to China's leadership because China is facing a population decline, due to very low fertility.[1] [2]...

> 1. Here is military age population: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/15-49...

I've read that's one factor that makes the 2020s particularly dangerous: it's peak Chinese demographics and a period of Western military weakness (b/c there's a pent up need for long term investment/replenishment, because the War on Terror shifted budgets towards short-term operations). There's a now-or-never factor if China wants to take Taiwan by force.

I love the implicit assumption that everyone is only a sufficiently convincing argument away from going gay.

Do you think the rate of people identifying as gay has increased or decreased along with the general public's acceptance of it?

They want gay people to stay in the closet and have unhappy marriages that produce lots of kids.

It’s increased, but I suspect it’s going to end up like left-handedness: https://slowrevealgraphs.com/2021/11/08/rate-of-left-handedn...

Where social acceptance brings people “out of the closet” and the percentage stabilizes.

Not even a convincing argument, just seeing gay people go about their lives normally.

Do you mean publicly or privately? Publicly, sure it has increased. Most people won't admit to something that they'll be shamed for. Privately, how could we know? Has there always been more or less the same amount of gay sex going on behind closed doors regardless of the situation in the public sphere? My default assumption would have to be yes, unless I saw compelling evidence to the contrary.

I think it's pretty safe to say that people will act less on something if they feel it's bad (due to being educated like it is), even behind closed doors. Especially since this makes it harder to find a partner.

There are also bisexual people who might end up with a same sex partner when free choose, but go with a heterosexual relationship due to societal pressure.

I read a statistic once that said the high water mark of homosexual relationships in the United States was during the Second World War (because all the men were overseas together and all the women were back home together). But you don’t see that portrayed in media.

> The CCP has also, er, "encouraged", women to spend less time on social media and shopping. Internally the CCP says members must have three children.[4]

Good luck with that in a society where pursuit of prosperity is a central tenet and consumerism is rampant.