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231 points cachecrab | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0.463s | source
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i_love_limes ◴[] No.31900479[source]
Epidemiologist in training here... There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. While that is true, I'd like to clarify a couple things:

1. The journal article didn't suggest it was causal. But such a correlation with such a large population warrants publication and further research into causation.

2. literally the first thing that any epidemiologist would consider is potential confounders. There is a big list of covariates they included into their model here: https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-...

There are quite a few things that can be done to alleviate potential false correlations: DAGs, prior literature, removing confounders, and including covariates are all things at disposal.

3. Such a large sample size + previously reported findings + an inclusion of enough covariates still doesn't == causation, BUT it's important to publish and shout about so we can then look into the potential biological underpinnings that may cause this. Which by the way, those experiments may still use data science techniques.

4. If you are actually interested, there is a whole topic of this called 'causal inference' with one famous criteria list called the 'Bradford Hill Criteria': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradford_Hill_criteria. This list is often argued about.

5. If all of this information was new to you, please stop spouting 'correlation != causation'. You probably don't know as much as you think

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amacneil ◴[] No.31900747[source]
If they only intend to claim correlation, avoiding the word "linked" in the announcement would probably help with general public interpretation.

I feel like in English, "linked" usually implies some sort of potential causation, not just a general relationship. For example: "boyfriend linked to murder case".

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1. kixiQu ◴[] No.31901631[source]
What's wrong with implying potential causation? Correlation is potential causation. The whole reason one says the boyfriend is linked to the murder case is because one isn't saying he's responsible -- and yet he might be.
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2. headsoup ◴[] No.31902184[source]
Probably just because it isn't a very high bar. "People who eat McDonald's linked to fewer car accidents." I mean some data might just show that, but causality is a lot further away there.

Hence, while a correlation might be interesting, when presented we need to also understand the methodology and go into the detail a little bit to see how extra factors have narrowed down that finding.

E.g, without looking into any of the data, 'more Flu shots reduces risk of Alzheimer's' might be because people predisposed to Alzheimer's have a poor diet and the flu shot just counters some other terrible health effect. So first bit of detail to look at is whether the selection factors for diet, comorbidities, environment, general health, history, etc.

Not saying anything about this article, but context is always important, hence those claiming 'correlation !== causation' are only correct as far as not looking any deeper. Same for 'well it could be' is useless without knowing how close to 'could be' it is.

More critical imo, is the use of '40% reduction.' If this is relative risk (this study is not, it's absolute), the actual risk could be 0.0037%, where a reduction of 40% is practically nothing. So next check is: is this relative or absolute risk? If relative, relative to what baseline? So many studies are distorted by using relative risks against a meaningless baseline.