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i_love_limes ◴[] No.31900479[source]
Epidemiologist in training here... There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. While that is true, I'd like to clarify a couple things:

1. The journal article didn't suggest it was causal. But such a correlation with such a large population warrants publication and further research into causation.

2. literally the first thing that any epidemiologist would consider is potential confounders. There is a big list of covariates they included into their model here: https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-...

There are quite a few things that can be done to alleviate potential false correlations: DAGs, prior literature, removing confounders, and including covariates are all things at disposal.

3. Such a large sample size + previously reported findings + an inclusion of enough covariates still doesn't == causation, BUT it's important to publish and shout about so we can then look into the potential biological underpinnings that may cause this. Which by the way, those experiments may still use data science techniques.

4. If you are actually interested, there is a whole topic of this called 'causal inference' with one famous criteria list called the 'Bradford Hill Criteria': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradford_Hill_criteria. This list is often argued about.

5. If all of this information was new to you, please stop spouting 'correlation != causation'. You probably don't know as much as you think

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amacneil ◴[] No.31900747[source]
If they only intend to claim correlation, avoiding the word "linked" in the announcement would probably help with general public interpretation.

I feel like in English, "linked" usually implies some sort of potential causation, not just a general relationship. For example: "boyfriend linked to murder case".

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sudosysgen ◴[] No.31901380[source]
Correlations do imply a link, though. They don't imply causation, but in the absence of selection bias and with enough of a sample size, it is almost certain there is a link somewhere.
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1. toolz ◴[] No.31901452[source]
Well let's test this theory out then. Would you say I was being ridiculous if I told you that the number of people who drown in a year is linked to how many movies nicolas cage appears in?

If so, then you might not actually believe linked is simply a synonym for correlation. I know I certainly would think that was a ridiculous way to phrase it.

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2. MrsPeaches ◴[] No.31901695[source]
> the number of people who drown in a year is linked to how many movies nicolas cage appears in

For those who don't know the reference: http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

3. 2muchcoffeeman ◴[] No.31901884[source]
That's just being facetious though. We've all seen that website with funny correlations. This line of argument while an important lesson to look deeper into systems before claiming a correlation doesn't really add much here.

Loads of people get the flu vaccine. Enough that I'd imagine the sample size is representative of the population at large. A large number of people also don't get the flu vaccine. So this is a surprising result. Especially since we are injecting a liquid into the people so there could reasonably be some effect we never thought of. Which is the whole point. These people aren't correlating things in completely unrelated fields and claiming a link.

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4. sudosysgen ◴[] No.31902242[source]
Congratulations, you've discovered p-hacking.

I said "almost certain". What you did is taken a database of someone who made millions of comparisons, such that coincidences that are very unlikely to occur happen via pure coincidence.

Additionally, I said "enough of a sample size". Given that the analysis you're talking about was over 11 pairs of points, that doesn't even qualify as very unlikely.

5. native_samples ◴[] No.31908870[source]
It's not facetious. It's quite the stretch to say that if you assume literally any injection could cure any disease, it's OK to describe any found correlation as a "link".

This sort of intellectual looseness is not free. People are learning to treat claims by scientists as untrue, and it's partly because of this sort of press release/paper hacking.

Finding a correlation between two random medical data sets does not mean there is a "link" in any English that normal people would use it. It definitely does not mean there's an "effect" or that one thing "reduces" the other. It might mean there's something worth a followup investigation there, though given the prevalence of non-reproducible p-hacked results in science, also maybe not.

Regardless, before doing press releases and going to the public with such a claim there is a large amount of work needing to be done to actually prove causality. Moreover you'd then want to ask why does such a thing happen when there is no prior reason to suspect such an impact.

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6. ◴[] No.31909044[source]
7. 2muchcoffeeman ◴[] No.31913757{3}[source]
> It's not facetious. It's quite the stretch to say that if you assume literally any injection could cure any disease, it's OK to describe any found correlation as a "link".

I don't see it that way. Nick Cage has nothing to do with Alzheimers. We're not finding correlations with Nick Cage movies and then saying "Nick Cage linked to reduction in Alzheimers".

They are suggesting that flu vaccination may have some 2nd order effect beyond protecting you from the flu. Which could be reasonable, science reporting and poor research notwithstanding.

Either way, the refrain "Correlation does not imply causation" is over used in my view. And I'd rather learn the specific ways the research is flawed.

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8. native_samples ◴[] No.31919313{4}[source]
It could be reasonable but like I said, it's a massive stretch. Flu vaccines are not designed to stop Alzheimer's. There is no argued or known biological pathway through which that might happen. Alzheimer's experts have not previously identified flu vaccines as doing anything that might help. And it probably isn't flu itself causing Alzheimer's because, as I've noted elsewhere in this thread, flu vaccines don't appear to have actually reduced overall flu mortality and some studies show negative effectiveness.

https://www.healio.com/news/primary-care/20200302/flu-vaccin...

I don't think there's a really killer argument here in the abstract: I personally find it unreasonable to imply causation from any medical intervention to any possible outcome based on just a correlation. Yes, it's more reasonable than Nick Cage being associated, but not reasonable enough. That's a judgement call however. I am guided in it by the massive costs and problems created when scientists claim vaccines are miracle cures without sufficiently robust data.

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9. acdha ◴[] No.31923528{5}[source]
> Flu vaccines are not designed to stop Alzheimer's. There is no argued or known biological pathway through which that might happen.

You might want to read the paper before saying untrue things like that so confidently:

“Mounting evidence indicates that systemic immune responses can have lasting effects on the brain and can influence AD risk and/or progression. A diverse range of microorganisms and infectious diseases have been associated with an increased risk and/or rate of cognitive decline, particularly among older adults, including influenzal respiratory infections [5, 6], pneumonia [4, 7], herpes infections [7], chronic periodontitis [8], urinary tract infections [4], gastrointestinal infections [9], sepsis [4], and most recently COVID-19 [10]. Prevention or attenuation of microbe-related inflammation may therefore represent a rational strategy to delay or reduce the risk of neurodegenerative disease. Consistent with this hypothesis, studies have found a decreased risk of dementia associated with prior exposure to various adulthood vaccinations, including those for tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis (Tdap) [11–13]; poliomyelitis [11]; tuberculosis [14, 15]; herpes zoster (i.e., shingles) [6, 13, 16, 17]; and influenza [11, 18–21].”

Unlike your Nick Cage theory, this has a clear mechanism and is compatible with the understanding of similar effects.

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10. native_samples ◴[] No.31930892{6}[source]
That supports my point, no? The paragraph you cited boils down to "there is an association between being less sick and not getting Alzheimer's (i.e. being less sick" + "there seems to be an association between literally any vaccine regardless of mechanism or target and less Alzheimers". These are not specific biological mechanisms of action, they're just correlations supported by an ultra-vague causal hypothesis of the form "maybe microbes cause Alzheimers". That's not actually a causal biological explanation.