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231 points cachecrab | 6 comments | | HN request time: 2.867s | source | bottom
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i_love_limes ◴[] No.31900479[source]
Epidemiologist in training here... There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. While that is true, I'd like to clarify a couple things:

1. The journal article didn't suggest it was causal. But such a correlation with such a large population warrants publication and further research into causation.

2. literally the first thing that any epidemiologist would consider is potential confounders. There is a big list of covariates they included into their model here: https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-...

There are quite a few things that can be done to alleviate potential false correlations: DAGs, prior literature, removing confounders, and including covariates are all things at disposal.

3. Such a large sample size + previously reported findings + an inclusion of enough covariates still doesn't == causation, BUT it's important to publish and shout about so we can then look into the potential biological underpinnings that may cause this. Which by the way, those experiments may still use data science techniques.

4. If you are actually interested, there is a whole topic of this called 'causal inference' with one famous criteria list called the 'Bradford Hill Criteria': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradford_Hill_criteria. This list is often argued about.

5. If all of this information was new to you, please stop spouting 'correlation != causation'. You probably don't know as much as you think

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blagie ◴[] No.31900640[source]
The scientists said it was causation.

    "We found that flu vaccination in older adults reduces the risk of 
     developing Alzheimer’s disease for several years. The strength of 
     this protective effect increased with the number of years that a 
     person received an annual flu vaccine – in other words, the rate 
     of developing Alzheimer’s was lowest among those who consistently 
     received the flu vaccine every year"
Yes, that's in an interview for the article. That's the reason (1) the general public misunderstands (2) people scream about it. Scientists get points for "high-impact research," and there is strong incentive to be dishonest.

(As a footnote, personally, I do believe it is causation; I believe that as with COVID and EB, we've dramatically underestimated the long-term impact of many viral infections. But that's just a personal belief.)

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1. spandrew ◴[] No.31901374[source]
This is a mischaracterization of even the words you've quoted.

The team did indeed find that flu vaccines reduced the risk of Alzheimers. But he specifically doesn't say they know why the flu vaccine lowers the risk. Ie. They can't claim causation if they don't understand the underlying reason for the change. That's not how science works.

In fact in the article in question he says the opposite: That the immune system is vastly complex, and all they can say is the immune system reacts to flu vaccines (all flu, not just a specific one) by diminishing an Alzheimers response. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ More study needed plz.

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2. bawolff ◴[] No.31902385[source]
I disagree that's a mischaracterization.

> The team did indeed find that flu vaccines reduced the risk of Alzheimers. But he specifically doesn't say they know why the flu vaccine lowers the risk

I don't think that's an accurate statement. They didn't find it reduced risk. They found that there seemed to be a pattern. That's different then saying the flu vaccine reduced risk. Its possible that the vaccine is just a coincidence.

But the pattern looks pretty strong so its interesting news nonetheless.

3. bumbledraven ◴[] No.31903091[source]
“The team did indeed find that suntan lotion reduced the risk of rain. But he specifically doesn't say they know why the suntan lotion lowers the risk.” - spandrew, probably
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4. blagie ◴[] No.31903176[source]
<--- Best comment ever.
5. spupe ◴[] No.31905095[source]
> They can't claim causation if they don't understand the underlying reason for the change. That's not how science works.

Sorry but I had to nitpick here. This is exactly how science works. We first observe things that we cannot explain, and we can definitely infer causation without a complete mechanism or even a proper theory for it.

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6. sweetdreamerit ◴[] No.31905728[source]
It's a little more nuanced. Causation can be inferred in an experimental design. If the researchers can manipulate the independent variable (the vaccine) using an experimental and a placebo group, and then they can measure a statistically (and clinically) significant difference, then we can assume that this is not just correlation.