Always Multiply Your Estimates by π (2013)

There was a claim I saw somewhere that the actual time required fits an exponential distribution with the estimate as the scale factor. Does anybody know the actual source, or a pointer thereto? This is assuming that the study actually exists and it isn't a "just so" story...

I think this is the article that you’re recalling: https://erikbern.com/2019/04/15/why-software-projects-take-l...