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xenihn ◴[] No.27161581[source]
I've been thinking about what would happen if there's an actual military crisis between China and Taiwan. I wonder if the United States would allow (and aid with) unlimited immigration from Taiwan for educated specialists, in an attempt to capture/retain as much skills and knowledge as possible.
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echelon ◴[] No.27161597[source]
The US should invite Taiwan to become the 50-nth state. Perhaps several states, to give them more Senate votes.

Numerous polls of the Taiwanese show that they would want to join the US if given the choice between independent statehood, joining the mainland, and joining the US.

Plus, the US gets a nice permanent military base and gets to monitor all future Chinese submarine activity.

If China attacks a US state, it would be like Yamamoto's "sleeping giant" moment. The US is trying to force China's hand while there is power asymmetry, and I can't think of a better checkmate move.

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elihu ◴[] No.27161713[source]
I don't know, that just raises the stakes so that losing would be much more embarrassing (as if that's the most important thing in geopolitics).

I mean, imagine the scenario where Taiwan becomes a U.S. state and then China invades and takes it anyways. And suppose the U.S. can't take it back without all-out (possibly nuclear) war, so they back down and let China have it.

That's a possible outcome that would have to be contemplated if Taiwan were to join the U.S.

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dnautics ◴[] No.27161916[source]
Suppose china invades Taiwan. Then what? They become a pariah state and lose all of their international trading partners for things like oil. Something like 50% of Chinese agriculture is dependent on foreign oil inputs...
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magicsmoke ◴[] No.27162479[source]
Not sure Russia, Iran, or the Saudis give a shit about Taiwan.

China only loses its oil shipments if it can't secure shipping through the Indian ocean or build an overland alternative. It won't make a move until those are complete.

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1. dnautics ◴[] No.27167415[source]
How does it even get to the Indian ocean? Will Indonesia let china-bound oil tankers through? Will Chinese oil tankers need to go around Australia to get to Iran or Saudi Arabia?