I wasted $40k on a fantastic startup idea

That was a fun read. I wish the author mentioned how much he was trying to sell the service for. It could have been $59 a month or $599 a month and with doctors you could potentially expect the same answer.

I'm not a psychologist but some of the author's quoted text came off extremely demeaning in written form. If the author happens to read this, did you really say those things directly to them?

For example, Susan (psychologist) was quoted as saying:

> "Oh sure! I mean, I think in many cases I'll just prescribe what I normally do, since I'm comfortable with it. But you know it's possible that sometimes I'll prescribe something different, based on your metastudies."

To which you replied:

> "And that isn't worth something? Prescribing better treatments?"

Imagine walking into the office of someone who spent the last ~10 years at school and then potentially 20 years practicing their craft as a successful psychologist and then you waltz in and tell them what they prescribe is wrong and your automated treatment plan is better.

This article was posted before several years ago. The whole premise is bumptious - "I can copy data out of a bunch of papers [which I am in no position to screen for quality or relevance], run a canned 'gold standard' analysis in R [the idea that there is one true way to generate valid data is ridiculous], and then go tell the professionals what they are doing wrong." He even brags that his meta-analysis for depression had more papers than the published one, as if this was a valid metric. The Cipriani meta-analysis he cites was publised in February 2018. His meta-analysis was done in July 2018, and had 324 more papers - what explains this difference, other than obviously sloppy methodology. A proper meta-analysis is a lot of work, researchers spend years on one meta-analysis. The whole concept is ill conceived, and the author is too caught up in themselves to even realise why.

Meta-analyses are a good idea, but the mere presence of a meta-analysis does not denote a useful undertaking. The literature is polluted with thousands of meta-analyses. As far as I can see this is mainly because there is software available which lets almost anyone do it, and once someone else has done a meta-analysis it is much easier to do another one because they have already found all the papers for you. The publication rate of meta-analyses far outstrips the publication rate of all papers, and shows some unusual geographic variation (Fig 2) [1].

[1] https://systematicreviewsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/...

With all the negative pushback this is getting, it’s making me think he was onto something. The exact same criticisms would apply to Airbnb, for example. “They have not the slightest idea how the hotel industry works. This is a very professional industry with a lot of legal hurdles...”

Well, Airbnb and Uber aren’t the best examples, are they? Their growth and “success” is fueled by either operating in a legal gray zone, or defying the local regulations all together. Many people all over the world think their lives were made much worse since Airbnb is negatively affecting the long-term rental market.

Point is, the effect of the company on the society can’t just be measured by market cap.

Back to the original article, the author was using statistical analysis to provide medical advice. Now, it’s incredibly easy to arrive to false conclusions with statistics. That’s why there’s regulations, peer reviews etc. What if the “Egyptian contractors” screwed the data up. Was the founder qualified to spot an issue?

I think they’re ideal examples. Market cap is pretty much everything. It affects the world more than morals do.

HN has drifted further and further from reality, which has been very strange to watch. The classic example was someone dismissing Dropbox when they first launched, but now it’s turned into dismissing billion dollar companies after they’ve clearly won.

Only the parent doesn't dismiss "billion dollar companies", they dismiss comparing them to shut down, non winning, companies like in TFA.

Ah yes, one failure = the idea is horrible. Another classic trope.

Well, the idea was rejected by patients, advertising revenue, and doctors...

I also note the "weasel word" idea. This wasn't just an idea, but an implementation.

The same thing might make sense as a value-added feature in a more comprehensive health service (so the "idea" might be good when put in that use).

But as an idea for a service based entirely on it, it failed hard. What exactly twist do you have in mind to save it? Or are you just saying "we'll never be sure" with more words?

If you study a lot of history, you start to notice that old ideas are bad until they’re suddenly very good. Cannons sucked for a long time, till Napoleon showed they weren’t so bad.

I think posting haughty words is a lot easier than trying to make something work.