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2101 points jamesjyu | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.202s | source
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holman ◴[] No.19106188[source]
Really love this post. My favorite line is:

> Every month of less than 20% growth should have been a red flag.

I think that's pretty insightful. 20% growth is great for a normal business, of course; for a VC-backed startup it can show some warning signs about future hard decisions you might have to face.

I think there's certainly lots of discussion that has been had — and should be had — about "should I or shouldn't I raise money?", but there still are plenty of companies and founders who will raise VC, and paying attention to those early warning signs are important if that's the choice you make. It's important to worry about it each month and each week rather than the two months surrounding the raise of your next round.

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fh973 ◴[] No.19106433[source]
This would be 9x per year. What are examples of companies with such a growth rate?
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why_only_15 ◴[] No.19106729[source]
Startups. To choose a recent one that turned big, Facebook was approaching such numbers: https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pict...
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gav ◴[] No.19107045[source]
Not even close.

If you start at 1 million users, 20% monthly growth for 9 years means you would have 13,375,565,248,934 users, or a little over 13 trillion.

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1. lmeyerov ◴[] No.19107269[source]
Yep. $1M ARR -> $9M ARR right after series A would kill 99% of startups :)

In b2b & esp enterprise, a solid co seems:

* Year 0, 1: $0K-$1M (e.g., POC money or OSS project at another employer) ...

* Year X: $1M ARR <-- series a territory

* Year X+1: $2-4M ARR (ideally 3X+)

* Year X+2: $5-10M ARR (2X+) <-- series b territory

* ...

* IPO: $200M+ @ 1.5X growth

That's based on recent IPOs. b/c big seeds and series a concentration, maybe diff for current crop?

The post resonates. It took us awhile on "0->X" b/c we do deep tech vs vanilla saas, and had to get it to the point we can start cranking on more pure-product stuff. So for deep tech co's, you either make no true product and flip, or do a lot of work before even getting to the real business journey.