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1106 points sama | 26 comments | | HN request time: 1.704s | source | bottom
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astazangasta[dead post] ◴[] No.12508638[source]
Of course Elon Musk thinks that AI and brain interfaces are the most important things to work on, that's all that is holding back his raging space boner. Meanwhile, a large part of the world is still using Iron Age technology to get by with the bulk of their lives.

The most important work of "How to Build the Future" is political work - reforming our property relations, for example, so that we aren't organizing our economic lives around feudal holdovers like land titles. Who gives a shit if Elon Musk can connect his brain to the Internet and live forever as a sentient AI, while the rest of humanity drinks ditch water and lives small, dull lives?

1. JoshTriplett ◴[] No.12508735[source]
The delta from "people die" to "people no longer die" is a massive technological problem. By comparison, once we have that technology, making it available to everyone is many orders of magnitude easier, and much easier to get funding for. Do you really believe, given a cure for mortality, that we couldn't get it to the rest of the world in much less time than it took to develop in the first place?

And with that in place, thousands of other smaller problems evaporate along with it.

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2. tucaz ◴[] No.12508757[source]
I don't have the exact numbers but If I'm not mistaken its said that we need less money to end hunger in the world than what we probably spent trying to get out of earth. So, it seems to me that your point is not really valid because we already have the tech/knowledge/means to end hunger and we didn't so it makes a lot of sense to me to focus some more on political reforms.
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3. idlewords ◴[] No.12508765[source]
Much more likely than a hotfix for death is a world where there are very, very expensive treatments that allow wealthy people to extend their lives by some significant amount.

That's not going to be a fun world to live in, especially if the treatments requires biological raw materials that the destitute can sell.

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4. astazangasta ◴[] No.12508784[source]
> Do you really believe, given a cure for mortality, that we couldn't get it to the rest of the world in much less time than it took to develop in the first place?

Why doesn't everyone have potable drinking water or electricity yet?

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5. bbctol ◴[] No.12508816[source]
Well, we developed an easy way to make insulin, and have been failing at getting it to the rest of the world due to lack of political will or economic pressure. I seriously see no reason why wealthy people who develop immortality will want or be able to share it with the poor. That, and the idea of "once we solve the hard problem, the easier problems become easier" is a terrible logical muddle that can be used to justify literally anything.
6. drakonandor ◴[] No.12508823[source]
We have certainly attempted to end hunger and done a pretty good job, however, certain parties and our own reluctance to meddle prevent us from fully accomplishing our goals.. e.g. we know for a fact that very little of the aid going to NK or Palestine gets to where it should, and instead lines their leaders' pockets, but we haven't done anything meaningful about it yet.

And I'm not saying we should do something drastic, Iraq certainly taught us that - however, we certainly don't deserve the blame for any of the aforementioned examples when we are trying our best but prevented by local warmongers (e.g. Africa) and such.

If everyone refused to better yourself because someone else has it worse, nothing would ever get better.

7. petra ◴[] No.12508830[source]
Sure it would be easy to manufacture a billion doses of anti-death pill. But how will you guarratee high-quality life for billions of immortals and their descendents ?

It's a really hard problem, it could cause a lot of large scale problems(where usually the poor/weak will suffer).

And i wouldn't be surprised if you asked most poor/regular people if they see this as an important problem for them, the answer would be no.

8. JoshTriplett ◴[] No.12508833[source]
It's a lot easier to go from "expensive treatment" to "inexpensive treatment" (and/or supporting funding) than to go from "no known solution" to "treatment" (however expensive).

Asking people for funding for a cure for mortality is hard, not least of which convincing them of the problem, and then convincing them that a solution is not only feasible but realistic. Asking people to help make an existing cure available to everyone is much easier, because you've already overcome the fundamental disbelief in the problem and the possibility of a solution.

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9. chc ◴[] No.12508841[source]
How is that relevant? Are you trying to say that potable water and electricity are mistakes because we haven't gotten them to everybody yet?
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10. drakonandor ◴[] No.12508851[source]
Because their own leaders/people don't want them to.
11. emmett ◴[] No.12508857[source]
Historically, expensive treatments for the rich have become universal treatments for everyone over time.

What makes you believe that life extension will be any different? Or, if you disagree that expensive treatments generally stay expensive, what are your examples?

I agree we could have a temporary awkward period in the middle, say 20 years, where it's not cheap yet. But on the scale of history that's a short period of time...I'll admit that's cold comfort to those who die in the meantime.

(See: antibiotics, insulin, appendectomies, lasik, ...)

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12. astazangasta ◴[] No.12508904{3}[source]
No, I'm saying that "the future" arriving is more a function of political will than it is of technological development. It's a mistake to imagine that we can merely build magic technologies and humanity will benefit; if we don't make the effort to organize to share what we make, "the future" will be a set of circumstances enjoyed by a narrow subset of humanity.
13. idlewords ◴[] No.12508913{3}[source]
I'm not talking about a cure for death, but something that is the life extension analogue to plastic surgery.
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14. Afforess ◴[] No.12508965[source]
Ending world hunger would cost a lot more than time spent trying to get out of Earth, because in order to end world hunger, you'd have to reform political systems that are impeding the abolishment of world hunger. For example, there is no way world hunger can be ended without massive regime change in North Korea, and any such change would be monumentally expensive, even if done peacefully.

Solving the first 80% of world hunger was cheap, solving the last 20% is expensive.

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15. idlewords ◴[] No.12508989{3}[source]
My counterexample is a facelift.
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16. TeMPOraL ◴[] No.12509043{4}[source]
It's something that's not widely needed or desired, therefore a luxury product. Market forces can be funny like that.

My counter-counter example would be dentistry, or various forms of surgery in general. Especially the latter is expensive as hell, but most of the world managed to create systems that give access to it to pretty much everyone. Even the US somewhat manages that.

17. hx87 ◴[] No.12509056{4}[source]
A facelift isn't all that useful in the grand scheme of things, even to the wealthy, and it requires a significant quantity of very highly skilled manual labor, which keeps the price high. Neither of the above would be true of a treatment that delays or reverses aging.
18. TeMPOraL ◴[] No.12509167{4}[source]
Try "surgery" instead of "plastic surgery". Plastic surgery is a luxury product with little demand, but the life-saving kind of surgery is just as expensive (or even more) in labour and resources, but because there's a demand and a moral urgency, societies figured out how to finance it for ordinary people.
19. tucaz ◴[] No.12509216{3}[source]
I'm not saying this is the correct amount, but UN [1] says 30 billion/year would be enough to do it. However, I believe that they are taking into account only the financial needs and not the political effort necessary to do it, mainly to prevent people from diverting that money from going into the right place.

I wasn't going to get into this subject to prevent a long debate, but I'm always amazed on how these things go. We have all the money in the world to fix it for good, but for some unknown reason we just can't do it.

There was a time that I thought that if someone as powerful and "rich" as Musk ran for president for some big and important country (like the US) they could fix everything.

But for some reason that is unknown to me this will never happen. And when something close to it (in the power and money sense), like Trump running for president, does happen we know that we are not going to get this "magic fix".

It seems that at the moment that the possible fixer gets to a position where he can fix things, he no longer wants do it.

Another stupid idea, or parallel, is Pablo Escobar. At some point in his life the guy spent 2k+/day just for money rubbers. At first he wanted to be good and do good for Colombian people, but when he got to a position where he could do it, he no longer wanted to do that.

I guess we will never fix anything and the world will be as screwed as it is today. Or worse.

[1] http://borgenproject.org/the-cost-to-end-world-hunger/

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20. TeMPOraL ◴[] No.12509268{4}[source]
> There was a time that I thought that if someone as powerful and "rich" as Musk ran for president for some big and important country (like the US) they could fix everything.

> But for some reason that is unknown to me this will never happen. And when something close to it (in the power and money sense), like Trump running for president, does happen we know that we are not going to get this "magic fix".

I don't understand why do people still care about presidents? They can't do crap. Even the decisions they sign off are not really made by them. You don't even get to be a candidate if you aren't already up to ears in the usual political mud of deals and backstabbing. Democracies we know, as they mature, become very efficient at filtering out people who are too dangerous to status quo as they go up.

That's why if Elon even run for the office, I'd know it's the end of the good he can do for anyone.

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21. tucaz ◴[] No.12509369{5}[source]
Replace "President" with "leader", "chieftain", "captain", "boss", "guide" or any other word such as this and we still get to the same place: nowhere.

My point was that if someone with enough pull (pull being money, power or anything else that "drives" the world) wanted to make it good, they could. But it seems that they can't. It's simply not possible.

What matters is the collective and although there are companies with the size of small countries we still can't fix even small countries like we can in a company.

I guess that at the end we are doomed to coexist with poverty, hunger, illnesses and all of the bad things that could be easily destroyed if we really wanted to, but looks like that despite the fact that we all say we want to get rid of these things we really don't want to.

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22. taeric ◴[] No.12509415{4}[source]
How do facelifts extend life? I thought they were purely cosmetic.
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23. TeMPOraL ◴[] No.12509474{6}[source]
> Replace "President" with "leader", "chieftain", "captain", "boss", "guide" or any other word such as this and we still get to the same place: nowhere.

Yes and no. Captains (of ships) can be very effective. So can many leaders, and CEOs of companies that didn't go public or take too much VC money. It gets easier when people are expected to listen to you and you don't have to worry about reelection.

> I guess that at the end we are doomed to coexist with poverty, hunger, illnesses and all of the bad things that could be easily destroyed if we really wanted to, but looks like that despite the fact that we all say we want to get rid of these things we really don't want to.

As humans we really suck at coordinating ourselves together. It's a large an interesting topic. That's why I think technological solutions are so alluring. As undemocratic as it is, you can get much more done if you sidestep the need to first get everyone on board. So I guess we will be doomed to coexist with relative poverty as long as there's anything - status, power, wealth - people want to have more of than their neighbours. But absolute poverty? People going hungry? This, I believe, can be solved, and with enough technology can be solved without asking everyone for opinion. If food gets dirt cheap everywhere (and I mean "dirt cheap", not "pretty cheap thanks to economies of scale but not cheap enough for those actually making that food"), even the poorest person on Earth will have access to it, because there'll be zero reason for everyone to expend energy on preventing that access.

24. emmett ◴[] No.12509921{4}[source]
I'm not super familiar with facelift costs over time, but a quick google gives me this link: http://www.drhodgkinson.com.au/news-resource/different-types...

Quoth the article: "Facelifts have come a long way in the last 20 years, not only in terms of technique, but also in terms of accessibility to both women and men. In the 1970s and even into the 1980s, the facelift was a luxury reserved for the rich and famous."

This leads me to believe facelifts have greatly declined in cost over the past 30 years. The number of such surgeries has greatly increased as well ("Since 2000, overall procedures have risen 115 percent, but the types of procedures patients are choosing are changing." -- http://www.plasticsurgery.org/news/2016/new-statistics-refle... )

Do you have any other examples? Because the one you gave doesn't appear to support the argument that prices will remain high for long periods of time. Especially given that facelifts are a cosmetic surgery and thus there's relatively little drive to give them to everyone.

25. dredmorbius ◴[] No.12511254{5}[source]
If I'm interpreting properly: that's the point.
replies(1): >>12511715 #
26. taeric ◴[] No.12511715{6}[source]
I interpreted the main claim to be "expensive life extending procedures..." I think if you drop the "life extending," then bringing up facelifts makes sense. Otherwise... it doesn't really seem to fit into the debate in a meaningful way.