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136 points gwern | 63 comments | | HN request time: 1.965s | source | bottom
1. danieltillett ◴[] No.10490915[source]
I would be very surprised if high intelligence was anything other than the extreme edge of a normal distribution of the human population. For it to be anything other than this it would require people of high intelligence to be a sub-population that did not breed with the rest of humanity.
replies(11): >>10490953 #>>10491090 #>>10491222 #>>10491322 #>>10491415 #>>10491550 #>>10491579 #>>10493236 #>>10493248 #>>10493909 #>>10495309 #
2. yummyfajitas ◴[] No.10490953[source]
You could make this argument for any trait. However, some traits are the result of a single gene - e.g., sickle cell anemia and the accompanying malaria resistance. Yet some of these traits occur in large populations that are not strongly inbred.
replies(1): >>10491151 #
3. troels ◴[] No.10491090[source]
On the other hand - Chimps are significantly less intelligent than humans. So clearly, genetics play a role.
replies(3): >>10491164 #>>10491808 #>>10493807 #
4. danieltillett ◴[] No.10491151[source]
Only single gene traits. Intelligence (however defined) is multi-genetic - there are thousands of genes that contribute to intelligence. Given this the only way that individuals with high intelligence could be anything other than edge of a normal distribution is if they were part of a human sub-population.

Edit. I should add that the humans are not completely one population because of genetic isolation and differential selection (especially over the last 10,000 years), but we are almost a single population. Like everything in genetics it gets fuzzy at the edges.

replies(3): >>10491417 #>>10492555 #>>10493302 #
5. danieltillett ◴[] No.10491164[source]
Of course genetics plays a role in intelligence (a very important role). In the case of chimps they are not part of the human population so they are not really relevant to any discussion about the genetics of human intelligence.
replies(2): >>10491933 #>>10493363 #
6. mgraczyk ◴[] No.10491222[source]
Subpopulations can be physically and temporally distributed amongst the greater population. As long as breeding is not statistically independent of intelligence, there will be a tendency for intelligence-related genes to clump together.
replies(1): >>10491262 #
7. danieltillett ◴[] No.10491262[source]
This is true, but to get extreme outlier sub-populations for a mulit-gene trait like intelligence would require pretty effective isolation. For any sub-population to be large enough to affect the distribution of intelligence across the human population, yet be able to maintain this isolation, is very unlikely.
8. vixen99 ◴[] No.10491322[source]
'would require people of high intelligence to be a sub-population that did not breed with the rest of humanity' - which is increasingly what is happening with people of high ability & potential income of both sexes attending the same universities and mating. This polarization has been documented.
replies(6): >>10492482 #>>10492647 #>>10492941 #>>10494178 #>>10494678 #>>10495128 #
9. stephengillie ◴[] No.10491415[source]
It is - a family with low average intelligence can birth occasional individuals with much higher intelligence than their average.
10. arethuza ◴[] No.10491417{3}[source]
"there are thousands of genes that contribute to intelligence"

And the very definition of "intelligence" is incredibly complex and slippery, which is one of the reasons why I've always found trying to summarise such a complex property into a single numerical value such a silly exercise.

replies(1): >>10491960 #
11. lagadu ◴[] No.10491550[source]
> For it to be anything other than this it would require people of high intelligence to be a sub-population that did not breed with the rest of humanity.

It is: we call it "social classes". Because intelligence correlates positively with success and because people tend to have children with other people from a similar social stratum, the exact situation you described emerges as a pattern.

replies(1): >>10492771 #
12. douche ◴[] No.10491579[source]
Ashkenazi Jews would seem to be a well-studied sub-population that tends to possess above-average intelligence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jewish_intelligence

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13. medymed ◴[] No.10491808[source]
If raised in an affluent suburb, they might surprise you.
replies(1): >>10492554 #
14. ZeroGravitas ◴[] No.10491858[source]
I notice in that page it compares the number of "full" Ashkenazi Jews in the population, to the number of people who won various academic prizes who had "full or partial" Ashkenazi ancenstry, which seems like a very blatant distortion.

On reading slightly further I see someone else has already spotted this and added that disclaimer to the text.

Seems like it would be relatively easy to compare like with like here, which makes me suspicious of why it isn't done. Does that mean that the effect disappears when you do that comparison? It's certainly going to be reduced.

15. fche ◴[] No.10491933{3}[source]
... and in any case, evolution stops at the neck.
16. sanxiyn ◴[] No.10491960{4}[source]
Summarizing a complex property into a single numerical value is very useful and not silly. For example, temperature is a numerical summary of huge number of molecular motions.

More on this here: http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/11/does-the-glasgow-coma-s...

replies(2): >>10492003 #>>10493702 #
17. arethuza ◴[] No.10492003{5}[source]
I didn't say that all attempts to summarise a complex system in a single number are silly - just that intelligence is such a multi-faceted and ill-understood area that, in my opinion, evaluating people based on a single number is silly.

NB I say that as someone who got a very high IQ test result - which didn't exactly convince me that IQ tests are a good idea....

replies(1): >>10492420 #
18. themetrician ◴[] No.10492420{6}[source]
What is the name of the IQ test you took?

Intelligence really isn't "multi-faceted" (read Gardner's own admission that his theory never panned out) and it isn't ill-understood (refer to the Nature or Nurture interview with Nancy Segal on YouTube).

There's two reasons people say that. One is, they fared badly on a test and want to dismiss it, and the other is, they fared well on a test and are bashful about it.

Also, IQ tests are meant to measure a person's intelligence, not to convince them that IQ tests are "a good idea" - for that you would have to study Psychometrics.

replies(2): >>10495462 #>>10495514 #
19. ansible ◴[] No.10492482[source]
This polarization has been documented.

And seems to produce a higher incidence of autism too, if the anecdotes are to be believed...

replies(1): >>10492654 #
20. gwern ◴[] No.10492554{3}[source]
Speaking of which, have you seen the _Project Nim_ documentary on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nim_Chimpsky ? I would have to say that no, he did not surprise me, and the results were exactly what I would have expected after reading de Waal's _Chimpanzee Politics_.
replies(1): >>10497105 #
21. cousin_it ◴[] No.10492555{3}[source]
* Geographical isolation for much of history

* Social class

* Assortative mating

22. 0xdeadbeefbabe ◴[] No.10492647[source]
I hope someone intelligent is working on intelligence reallocation.
23. Omniusaspirer ◴[] No.10492654{3}[source]
That has more to do with parental age than anything else.
24. bittercynic ◴[] No.10492771[source]
My experience doesn't bear this out. Though the few extremely wealthy people I know seem very intelligent, I don't think intelligence correlates with income for the $15K-$200K annual income range. (This is the best proxy I know of for social stratum here in the Bay Area.)

I know very intelligent and very stupid people all over this income range, with no obvious pattern.

replies(1): >>10493366 #
25. astrodust ◴[] No.10492941[source]
There are a lot of highly intelligent people at all levels of income distribution, so while there might be a polarization effect, it's not to the point of being segregation.

Intelligence can help you gain wealth, but if you're never given an opportunity or don't have a lot of drive you'll struggle perpetually.

26. thaumasiotes ◴[] No.10493236[source]
> I would be very surprised if high intelligence was anything other than the extreme edge of a normal distribution of the human population. For it to be anything other than this it would require people of high intelligence to be a sub-population that did not breed with the rest of humanity.

Not at all. There could be a specific suite of traits that includes high intelligence, present in some people but not in most. Those people would have high intelligence, but they wouldn't be the extreme of the natural variation of the rest of the population. They would have gotten there by "cheating".

This is known to occur right now in human height. Men are taller than women. The difference is so pronounced that the human height distribution is not normal. The tallest humans (except Yao Ming) basically are the extreme of normal variation in men. But they aren't the extreme of normal variation in humans.

I hope you'll agree that "men" cannot be characterized as a subpopulation that doesn't breed with the rest of humanity.

replies(1): >>10494818 #
27. apalmer ◴[] No.10493248[source]
Your second sentence is not logically implied by the first sentence.

It is not uncommon to have phenotypes that are expressed only rarely although the genes that code for the phenotype are widely dispersed. Many well known genetic diseases fall into this category.

replies(1): >>10494637 #
28. apalmer ◴[] No.10493302{3}[source]
This is complete conjecture on your part.
29. apalmer ◴[] No.10493363{3}[source]
Wow... thats an amazing conclusion
30. Tenhundfeld ◴[] No.10493366{3}[source]
I don't think the question is whether "intelligence correlates positively with success". That may be true but doesn't reveal much about society, IMO.

The more interesting question is which correlations are strongest. I can't find a link, but I read a study that came out a few years ago that showed the biggest correlation with financial success was the parents' income levels. That is, controlling for the intelligence of the parents, an average-intelligence person born to wealthy parents was more likely to be financially successful than an above-average-intelligence person born to poor parents.

That may also be obvious, but it has more effect on the veracity of the common view of our society being a meritocracy.

replies(1): >>10494924 #
31. zardo ◴[] No.10493702{5}[source]
What we mean in common language by intelligence may not be a single property. It might be more analogous to smell than temperature. An inherently multi-dimensional phenomena that can't be accurately described by a scalar measure.
replies(1): >>10493939 #
32. DonaldFisk ◴[] No.10493807[source]
On many, but not all cognitive tasks:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn12993-chimps-outperfo...

Of course, genetics probably plays a role in that, too.

33. DonaldFisk ◴[] No.10493909[source]
I don't think there's such a thing as general intelligence. You can be good at some cognitive tasks and poor at other cognitive tasks: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_multiple_intelligenc...

I also don't think you can separate genetic influences from environmental influences, i.e. one allele might make you do well in one environment and poorly in a different environment. This appears to the case for the 7R allele of the DRD4 gene: http://www.northwestern.edu/newscenter/stories/2008/06/ariaa...

I also don't think any genes actually code for intelligence as it's commonly understood. Intelligence is, basically, knowledge (including knowledge about how to acquire knowledge). Genes affect brain chemistry, which influences intelligence in different ways, within a given environment.

replies(2): >>10493981 #>>10494083 #
34. nitrogen ◴[] No.10493939{6}[source]
It's actually not that difficult to turn a multidimensional measurement into a scalar quantiry; just represent the measurement as a vector composed of the deviation from median on each axis, then find the magnitude of the vector

But you're right that this doesn't tell you much about any of the individual dimensions. Maybe adding a variance across dimensions, so two numbers, would be more useful.

replies(1): >>10494503 #
35. jessriedel ◴[] No.10493981[source]
The theory of multiple intelligence you link to is in strong disagreement with the mainstream position of academia.

> Intelligence tests and psychometrics have generally found high correlations between different aspects of intelligence, rather than the low correlations which Gardner's theory predicts, supporting the prevailing theory of general intelligence rather than multiple intelligences (MI).[19] The theory has been widely criticized by mainstream psychology for its lack of empirical evidence, and its dependence on subjective judgement.[20]

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36. moyix ◴[] No.10494083[source]
From the Wikipedia page you link on multiple intelligences:

> Intelligence tests and psychometrics have generally found high correlations between different aspects of intelligence, rather than the low correlations which Gardner's theory predicts, supporting the prevailing theory of general intelligence rather than multiple intelligences (MI).[19] The theory has been widely criticized by mainstream psychology for its lack of empirical evidence, and its dependence on subjective judgement.[20]

As for your other points...

> I also don't think you can separate genetic influences from environmental influences, i.e. one allele might make you do well in one environment and poorly in a different environment.

That's probably the case for some genes, sure. But finding strong correlations between twins raised apart would seem to indicate that many of the genetic factors are not entirely environment-sensitive.

> I also don't think any genes actually code for intelligence as it's commonly understood. Intelligence is, basically, knowledge (including knowledge about how to acquire knowledge). Genes affect brain chemistry, which influences intelligence in different ways, within a given environment.

Twin studies seem to contradict this. From Wikipedia (heritability of IQ [1])

* Identical twins—Reared together .86

* Identical twins—Reared apart .76

So yes, environment has an impact, but there's still a high degree of correlation in intelligence between identical twins raised apart.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ#Correlation...

replies(1): >>10494400 #
37. drumdance ◴[] No.10494178[source]
It's happening, but I think it will take quite a few generations for it to become and independent trait of its own.
38. drumdance ◴[] No.10494215{3}[source]
Has anyone looked at how these studies correlate with the Big Five personality traits? It seems to me that intelligent people are more conscientious but that could just be my bias.
replies(1): >>10494459 #
39. DonaldFisk ◴[] No.10494236{3}[source]
IQ tests only measure a few factors, which may well be quite closely correlated. But I don't think everyone who does well in IQ tests has good social skills, is good at painting, playing a musical instrument, speaking a foreign language, playing football, or juggling (or could become good at them with sufficient practice). You could argue that these have nothing to do with intelligence, but they're clearly cognitive skills.
replies(1): >>10495103 #
40. DonaldFisk ◴[] No.10494400{3}[source]
The identical twins in these studies would have been reared in similar environments and cultures by different adoptive parents. The case I quoted were hunter-gatherer vs. farmers. Notice the difference. I was arguing, not that there's a genetic component, and an environmental component, but that the two are interlinked: different alleles can make different individuals well adapted in different enviroments.

In an modern developed economy, where you'll be more likely to do well if your IQ is high, some people will have inherited alleles which tend to raise their IQs and make them well-adapted to their environment, others different alleles which make them poorly adapted.

And, on top of that, there's an environmental, or rather cultural component.

41. moyix ◴[] No.10494459{4}[source]
Some quick Googling turns up:

http://www.drtomascp.com/uploads/PersonalityIntelligence_IJS...

Which seems to provide some (weak) evidence against that:

"The hypothesis of a significant correlation between various Big Five personality traits and intelligence test scores was only partially supported. Only Conscientiousness was significantly related to psychometric intelligence, correlating with BRT scores. It is worth noting that the correlation was negative, indicating that higher conscientious participants tended to have lower gf."

I'm far from an expert though, so I can't say how good that study is.

42. zardo ◴[] No.10494503{7}[source]
Of course, but you first you want to find the most accurate representation, then reduce it to something simpler as required.
43. danieltillett ◴[] No.10494637[source]
Intelligence is like height in that it is multi-genetic (on the order of thousands of genes). Any trait that is determined by thousands of genes is going to show a normal distribution.
replies(1): >>10495164 #
44. danieltillett ◴[] No.10494678[source]
It would take quite a while for asortive mating to create a new human sub-population, but given the low fertility (through choice) of people with high intelligence such a sub-population can't form.
45. danieltillett ◴[] No.10494734[source]
Even if it were true that Ashkenazi Jews as a group had above average intelligence, there just are not enough Ashkenazi Jews in the world to have a significant influence on the distribution of human intelligence.
46. danieltillett ◴[] No.10494818[source]
Men can't be a sub-population by definition since men can breed with men. In regards intelligence both men and woman share the same mean. Given men have only one X chromosome we might expect that they might show a wider distribution in intelligence than women, but the evidence for this is controversial and airing it has a habit of losing you your job.
replies(1): >>10494934 #
47. thaumasiotes ◴[] No.10494924{4}[source]
> an average-intelligence person born to wealthy parents was more likely to be financially successful than an above-average-intelligence person born to poor parents.

> That may also be obvious, but it has more effect on the veracity of the common view of our society being a meritocracy.

Why? There's nothing about that that speaks to how much of a meritocracy we are. Parents' financial success directly measures everything that contributes to financial success (rather than, say, a subcomponent); you'd expect it to be highly informative.

The result you cite still holds when both children are adopted away. Is that support for the view of society as a meritocracy?

replies(1): >>10495222 #
48. thaumasiotes ◴[] No.10494934{3}[source]
I don't see how this is responsive to anything in my comment?
replies(1): >>10496223 #
49. jessriedel ◴[] No.10495103{4}[source]
Playing a musical instrument, speaking a foreign language, and social skills, are definitely strongly correlated with IQ-loaded tests like the SAT. Yep.

I have no idea how football fairs, but you can debate the usefulness of that as an objection to the validity of IQ with someone else.

50. civilian ◴[] No.10495128[source]
It's not even that mating like that is increasingly happening--- it's been that way in nobility for a long time.

What is the True Rate of Social Mobility in Sweden? A Surname Analysis, 1700-2012 http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/papers/Sweden%202...

replies(2): >>10495387 #>>10496187 #
51. apalmer ◴[] No.10495164{3}[source]
I understand the reasoning behind that... however the whole point of this study was to put this logical assumption under the rigors of actual science...

because this is an 'assumption' not a logical 'conclusion'.

replies(1): >>10496175 #
52. Tenhundfeld ◴[] No.10495222{5}[source]
Not sure I entirely follow you.

In a meritocracy, as I understand the idea, one's success is based on ability and talent rather than on class privilege or wealth.

If the biggest factor in your success is your parents' wealth, doesn't that suggest we might not have a pure meritocracy?

Do you have a link to the study? I don't remember the part about it still holding true when children are adopted away. That is an interesting finding. It would support your point (I think the point you're making, at least) that it's not necessarily parents using their class/wealth to bolster their children, but instead the parents have the proper mix of traits (intelligence, grit, ability to delay gratification, etc.) that results in financial success.

replies(1): >>10496320 #
53. pippy ◴[] No.10495309[source]
Interesting, but tangently related: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Klark_Graham
54. amag ◴[] No.10495387{3}[source]
Skimmed through that one a bit.. I think he misses that having a patronym surname (ending with son) is very much out of fashion in Sweden today (and has been for quite some time), so people change it. The people most likely to change it are probably found in the more "elite" professions the author lists. If you're a blue-collar it may feel a bit presumptuous to change your surname, you will be ridiculed by your coworkers. OTOH if you're an attorney, it's almost mandated, "no one" will trust you if you have a patronym surname.
replies(1): >>10496026 #
55. arethuza ◴[] No.10495462{7}[source]
"it isn't ill-understood"

I worked on AI research for a number of years and my strong opinion is that our understanding of general intelligence is, as some wit put it, "pre-Newtonian".

replies(1): >>10495627 #
56. Mz ◴[] No.10495514{7}[source]
IQ tests are somewhat ridiculous to begin with. The first tests that eventually became IQ tests were not intended to measure intelligence. They were intended to measure school readiness of rural children whose birthdates were often not known with certainty. The lack of clear birthdates meant an age cut off could not be used and rural children faced cultural differences from kids in the big city (namely: Paris) that created inherent challenges to them fitting in and doing well in school.

Intelligence is neither well defined nor well understood. It is fairly controversial stuff.

replies(1): >>10495645 #
57. civilian ◴[] No.10496026{4}[source]
Good point, but I believe he addresses that:

> One thing we have to be wary of in this calculation of persistence is surname changing. If people going to the university born with the surname Anderson were changing this to Wigonius, then there would appear more persistence than there really was. The biographical sources for some of the student nations at Lund and Uppsala, Blekingska, Göteborgs, Skånska, Smålands, and Vermlands at Lund, and Östgöta at Uppsala, allow us to estimate the fraction of Latinized surnames which were newly adopted in each generation at the universities, since it gives fathers’ and mothers’ surnames for most students also. Figure 19 shows what fraction of students in each generation inherited rather than adopted a Latinized surname.18 For the earlier generations, 1730-1819, 96% of students acquired the name by inheritance from their father. However, 1820-1909 that proportion fell to 88%, even though by design these are all surnames that first existed before 1730.19 This will bias upwards my estimate of b, but can be corrected for by calculating for each period a b based just on the relative representation of the surname among the inheritors in that period.

58. danieltillett ◴[] No.10496175{4}[source]
I just said I would have been surprised if the result was anything other than they found, not that the study was not worth doing. For something as important as intelligence it is worth checking all of our assumptions.

This study does support what previous studies have found from when people looked for genes that had a large positive effect on intelligence and failed to find any.

59. danieltillett ◴[] No.10496187{3}[source]
Greg Clark’s A farewell to Alms is a very approachable overview to his research [1].

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Farewell_to_Alms

60. danieltillett ◴[] No.10496223{4}[source]
I should have written “can’t" not “can" which does rather mess up my response.

Actually height is unlike intelligence since there is one gene on the Y chromosome that has a very large influence on height. There are no such genes for intelligence as this study and many others has found.

61. DonaldFisk ◴[] No.10496320{6}[source]
Do you think a meritocracy is a good thing? Michael Young, the author of The Rise of the Meritocracy (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/792606.The_Rise_of_the_M...), and the inventor of the term, didn't think so: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/29/comment

Nor do I. Who decides what abilities are important? How do they go about measuring them?

replies(1): >>10499758 #
62. medymed ◴[] No.10497105{4}[source]
thats ridiculous:-)
63. Tenhundfeld ◴[] No.10499758{7}[source]
Honestly, I don't know. I haven't given the abstract concept enough thought or done enough research to have a well-reasoned opinion.

However, I do think it is "bad thing" for members of the elite to believe that we live in a meritocracy – when we do not, IMO. Skimming that Guardian article, I think my feeling is similar to the criticism put forth there. The notion that we live in a meritocracy creates a sense of entitlement and superiority in the elite. That is, if you believe we live in a true meritocracy, then those on top are there because they're smarter and harder working, and those on the bottom are there because they're less intelligent and/or aren't working as hard. Said more simply, meritocracy results in the feeling that you deserve your riches, and they deserve their poverty.

Whereas, in reality as I see it, your financial success is dependent on many factors outside of your control. Sure, most successful people are fairly smart and work hard, but many less successful people also have those qualities. The other factors contributing to success are things largely summed up by Warren Buffett's notion of the "Ovarian Lottery".

I'm not advocating a meritocracy. I'm advocating an honest assessment of society and the factors contributing to financial success.