←back to thread

The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

(ceodinner.substack.com)
117 points LordAtlas | 3 comments | 07 Dec 25 16:43 UTC | HN request time: 0.601s | source
Show context
8f2ab37a-ed6c ◴[07 Dec 25 19:03 UTC] No.46184133[source]▶
With little growth and hiring happening outside of firms betting the farm on AI—and getting the funding to stay alive and play the lottery—what is a random tech employee supposed to do here?

It seems like right now the most rational move to stay in the industry is to milk the AI wave as much as possible, learn all of the tools, get a big brand name on one's resume, and then land somewhere still-alive once the AI music stops? But ultimately if nothing outside of AI is growing, it's one big game of musical chairs and even that might not save you?

replies(5): >>46184165 #>>46184443 #>>46185266 #>>46185654 #>>46185917 #
karlgkk ◴[07 Dec 25 19:09 UTC] No.46184165[source]▶
That “rational move” has always been a good move, regardless of AI. This is a boom/bust industry, and the next boom will come in a few years. While we’re at it, if you’re making engineer money, you should be targeting retirement at 50. I’m not saying you have to do that, but it sure helps to have that option.
replies(2): >>46184717 #>>46184783 #
delfinom ◴[07 Dec 25 20:21 UTC] No.46184783[source]▶
> if you’re making engineer money,

SV & big tech engineer money.

Majority of engineering fields do not make that kind of money to retire at 50. Comfortable compared to the rest of the country, sure.

replies(4): >>46184901 #>>46185333 #>>46185543 #>>46186178 #
karlgkk ◴[07 Dec 25 20:35 UTC] No.46184901[source]▶
I think maybe that was implied, considering the topic of conversation and website we’re on.

That said if you’re making $250k+ a year and not on track to retire by 50, seriously please open a retirement calculator and figure out what you need to do to get there.

replies(6): >>46184954 #>>46185282 #>>46185303 #>>46185523 #>>46185882 #>>46186194 #
noncoml ◴[07 Dec 25 21:25 UTC] No.46185303[source]▶
$250k+ a year means ~$12k monthly salary.

A semi decent apartment in SV will cost you ~$3k

Bills(phone, internet, electricity, etc) another $1k.

If you are married, groceries at least $1k.

Even if we assume you don’t do anything else in life, and you are in perfect health best case scenario would be $6k savings a month or $72k a year.

It would take you 10 years to save $720k plus whatever you make from investments.

That’s not enough to even buy you a house in SV. How are you going to retire?

Unless you assume you will get $250k straight out of college and keep up salary raises for 25 years.

Sure, if you don’t have kids, age with no health problems, never enjoy anything in life, you may be able to retire at 50 in Thailand or Philippines.

replies(5): >>46185414 #>>46185469 #>>46185479 #>>46185619 #>>46185975 #
CraigJPerry ◴[07 Dec 25 21:42 UTC] No.46185469[source]▶
6k month over the past decade is circa 1.7m today depending on which index fund you chose.

Assuming a 4% draw down (conventionally agreed to be safe) is over 5.5k a month.

replies(3): >>46185607 #>>46186242 #>>46188602 #
1. wakawaka28 ◴[07 Dec 25 23:01 UTC] No.46186242[source]▶
Money has lost about about 10% per year in value for the past 5 years. It used to take like a million dollars to retire, but now it's like double that. In addition, nobody really knows how long they might live or how bad inflation could get. Imagine retiring at 50 only to be wiped out, and maybe still on the hook to pay for your own expenses for another 50 years, plus whoever you have in your life who counts on you.
replies(1): >>46188661 #
2. noncoml ◴[08 Dec 25 05:19 UTC] No.46188661[source]▶
2 millions to retire? Without owning a house? You must be kidding, unless you plan to live only until 60 or move to the cheapest place in the country. Also keep in mind that most health problems start after 50.
replies(1): >>46189373 #
3. wakawaka28 ◴[08 Dec 25 07:21 UTC] No.46189373[source]▶
To be fair, if you believe all the usual assumptions, then you can expect to earn 5% on that money. That would turn into $100k annually which is enough to live just about anywhere. Now, if you retire on time, I think this may also be tax free. So it's not that crazy, except for the unknowable inflation part of the puzzle. If inflation is also 5%, then your effective loss is 5% per year, so you'd be down nearly 100% after 20 years. Housing costs are crazy, but if you don't need to work then you can easily move to a cheaper place to save money.