The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

With little growth and hiring happening outside of firms betting the farm on AI—and getting the funding to stay alive and play the lottery—what is a random tech employee supposed to do here?

It seems like right now the most rational move to stay in the industry is to milk the AI wave as much as possible, learn all of the tools, get a big brand name on one's resume, and then land somewhere still-alive once the AI music stops? But ultimately if nothing outside of AI is growing, it's one big game of musical chairs and even that might not save you?

That “rational move” has always been a good move, regardless of AI. This is a boom/bust industry, and the next boom will come in a few years. While we’re at it, if you’re making engineer money, you should be targeting retirement at 50. I’m not saying you have to do that, but it sure helps to have that option.

> if you’re making engineer money,

SV & big tech engineer money.

Majority of engineering fields do not make that kind of money to retire at 50. Comfortable compared to the rest of the country, sure.

I think maybe that was implied, considering the topic of conversation and website we’re on.

That said if you’re making $250k+ a year and not on track to retire by 50, seriously please open a retirement calculator and figure out what you need to do to get there.

$250k+ a year means ~$12k monthly salary.

A semi decent apartment in SV will cost you ~$3k

Bills(phone, internet, electricity, etc) another $1k.

If you are married, groceries at least $1k.

Even if we assume you don’t do anything else in life, and you are in perfect health best case scenario would be $6k savings a month or $72k a year.

It would take you 10 years to save $720k plus whatever you make from investments.

That’s not enough to even buy you a house in SV. How are you going to retire?

Unless you assume you will get $250k straight out of college and keep up salary raises for 25 years.

Sure, if you don’t have kids, age with no health problems, never enjoy anything in life, you may be able to retire at 50 in Thailand or Philippines.

why would you would be saving for house and renting at same time ?

Because you need to have enough saved for a downpayment?

Well, interest rates are high right now, but you’d be surprised at how little down payment you need for purchasing a house or a condo. If you’re a tech worker with a stable career making that kind of money, most underwriters will just give you the loan.

I think people commonly underestimate how accessible this stuff is

It’s easy to make a 40 year forecast spreadsheet for retirement, including housing costs, property, taxes, maintenance. Include vacation, budget, food, general cost of living.

So you oblige yourself to an enormous long-term loan at high-interest, burn PMI on it because you have too little equity, secured against an overpriced-for-quality home whose value may already be at peak or plataeu, fixing yourself to one location, while all signs warn that you may be laid off at any time and facing a long period of unemployment.

I knew a lot of people who did almost exactly that ~18 years ago. It didn't go well for them.

And then it turned out that staying flexible as a renter and setting aside cash set me up to buy after a correction instead of before. That part went very well for me.

Be careful with the assumption coded into your "forecast spreadsheet"