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The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

(ceodinner.substack.com)
117 points LordAtlas | 11 comments | 07 Dec 25 16:43 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source | bottom
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8f2ab37a-ed6c ◴[07 Dec 25 19:03 UTC] No.46184133[source]▶
With little growth and hiring happening outside of firms betting the farm on AI—and getting the funding to stay alive and play the lottery—what is a random tech employee supposed to do here?

It seems like right now the most rational move to stay in the industry is to milk the AI wave as much as possible, learn all of the tools, get a big brand name on one's resume, and then land somewhere still-alive once the AI music stops? But ultimately if nothing outside of AI is growing, it's one big game of musical chairs and even that might not save you?

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karlgkk ◴[07 Dec 25 19:09 UTC] No.46184165[source]▶
That “rational move” has always been a good move, regardless of AI. This is a boom/bust industry, and the next boom will come in a few years. While we’re at it, if you’re making engineer money, you should be targeting retirement at 50. I’m not saying you have to do that, but it sure helps to have that option.
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delfinom ◴[07 Dec 25 20:21 UTC] No.46184783[source]▶
> if you’re making engineer money,

SV & big tech engineer money.

Majority of engineering fields do not make that kind of money to retire at 50. Comfortable compared to the rest of the country, sure.

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karlgkk ◴[07 Dec 25 20:35 UTC] No.46184901[source]▶
I think maybe that was implied, considering the topic of conversation and website we’re on.

That said if you’re making $250k+ a year and not on track to retire by 50, seriously please open a retirement calculator and figure out what you need to do to get there.

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noncoml ◴[07 Dec 25 21:25 UTC] No.46185303[source]▶
$250k+ a year means ~$12k monthly salary.

A semi decent apartment in SV will cost you ~$3k

Bills(phone, internet, electricity, etc) another $1k.

If you are married, groceries at least $1k.

Even if we assume you don’t do anything else in life, and you are in perfect health best case scenario would be $6k savings a month or $72k a year.

It would take you 10 years to save $720k plus whatever you make from investments.

That’s not enough to even buy you a house in SV. How are you going to retire?

Unless you assume you will get $250k straight out of college and keep up salary raises for 25 years.

Sure, if you don’t have kids, age with no health problems, never enjoy anything in life, you may be able to retire at 50 in Thailand or Philippines.

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PunchyHamster ◴[07 Dec 25 21:37 UTC] No.46185414{5}[source]▶
why would you would be saving for house and renting at same time ?
replies(1): >>46185426 #
1. rkomorn ◴[07 Dec 25 21:39 UTC] No.46185426{6}[source]▶
Because you need to have enough saved for a downpayment?
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2. karlgkk ◴[07 Dec 25 21:45 UTC] No.46185491[source]▶
Well, interest rates are high right now, but you’d be surprised at how little down payment you need for purchasing a house or a condo. If you’re a tech worker with a stable career making that kind of money, most underwriters will just give you the loan.

I think people commonly underestimate how accessible this stuff is

It’s easy to make a 40 year forecast spreadsheet for retirement, including housing costs, property, taxes, maintenance. Include vacation, budget, food, general cost of living.

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3. rkomorn ◴[07 Dec 25 21:48 UTC] No.46185509[source]▶
I left Silicon Valley 5 years ago. Are people getting $1M+ loans with zero down these days?
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4. swatcoder ◴[07 Dec 25 22:02 UTC] No.46185646[source]▶
So you oblige yourself to an enormous long-term loan at high-interest, burn PMI on it because you have too little equity, secured against an overpriced-for-quality home whose value may already be at peak or plataeu, fixing yourself to one location, while all signs warn that you may be laid off at any time and facing a long period of unemployment.

I knew a lot of people who did almost exactly that ~18 years ago. It didn't go well for them.

And then it turned out that staying flexible as a renter and setting aside cash set me up to buy after a correction instead of before. That part went very well for me.

Be careful with the assumption coded into your "forecast spreadsheet"

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5. karlgkk ◴[07 Dec 25 22:53 UTC] No.46186150{3}[source]▶
Well yes, there are tradeoffs. On the other hand, go ahead and burn 3k a month on rent.

There is no one size fits all solution but i’m surprised at how many people here are inadvertently revealing to me that they haven’t even tried evaluating.

For example, you saying there’s nothing “affordable” when the baseline assumption is an income of $250k? Can tell you haven’t looked at what’s in your price range. Alright, good luck I guess!

6. karlgkk ◴[07 Dec 25 22:58 UTC] No.46186206{3}[source]▶
No? What?

I mentioned Lifestyle creep before but what is with everyone’s fried brains?

A small condo in a nice neighborhood in Santa Clara is below $500k. Yes, that’s a lot, and you certainly can get more bang for your buck if you’re willing to do a little commuting.

Btw a $1m house is accessible if you make $250k yr, although to be honest, I would highly recommend against it

replies(1): >>46188580 #
7. rkomorn ◴[08 Dec 25 05:04 UTC] No.46188580{4}[source]▶
The question I originally responded to was "why would you rent and save for a house at the same time?"

I said "because you need to have a downpayment".

You reply "downpayments aren't that high".

Unless you're getting loans zero down, you literally still need to save to have your downpayment. While you're renting.

So where is my brain fried?

Even on a $500k condo, you're putting 10% down, you still need to have that saved up. Noticeably more, in fact, because I'm sure you'd agree "lemme sink every saved cent I have into my house downpayment" wouldn't be wise.

8. PunchyHamster ◴[08 Dec 25 12:27 UTC] No.46191475[source]▶
not for 10 years you don't
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9. rkomorn ◴[08 Dec 25 12:28 UTC] No.46191485[source]▶
You don't need to save for a downpayment for 10 years? Or are you saying it won't take 10 years to save up for a downpayment?
replies(1): >>46192872 #
10. PunchyHamster ◴[08 Dec 25 14:53 UTC] No.46192872{3}[source]▶
now if you only read the comment I answered to you might've figured the answer to that on your own!
replies(1): >>46195453 #
11. rkomorn ◴[08 Dec 25 17:57 UTC] No.46195453{4}[source]▶
Touché.

I don't see how we get to "why would you rent and save for a house at the same time?" from "it takes 10 years to save $720K" but whatever.