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The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

(ceodinner.substack.com)
117 points LordAtlas | 5 comments | 07 Dec 25 16:43 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source
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kittikitti ◴[07 Dec 25 18:18 UTC] No.46183748[source]▶
I think this article is nearing the truth in the future of AI. I think the avoidance of claiming it is a bubble is a good sign, but saying it's an AI wildfire is still hyperbole. The idea that inference will drive compute demand is not what I experience because inference is a much easier problem than training. The training of an AI (LLM) is especially demanding and if and when we complete that, inference will be a piece of cake.

I think the best metaphor will be the California gold rush. There is definitely gold there but most of it has already been mined. The people who are entering at this point are woefully unprepared, assuming that they can vibe their way into a fortune, when the rest of the gold requires hard earned labor.

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1. Libidinalecon ◴[07 Dec 25 19:30 UTC] No.46184336[source]▶
California gold rush is practically the textbook example of a mania.

Gold, tulips, real estate, rail, witch hunts, satanic panic..

We shouldn't be worried because "this time it is different".

"AI" is none of those things. It is "totally different this time". "AI" is going to do all the work for us, we are all going to get UBI then at some point as it grows the "ASI" is going to either figure out how to grant us immortality or cause mass human genocide.

It is all completely rational this time.

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2. ◴[07 Dec 25 20:16 UTC] No.46184740[source]▶
3. m4rtink ◴[07 Dec 25 20:19 UTC] No.46184761[source]▶
Not not mention the California gold rush basically killed the existing functional local community (often literally) with very few people actually getting rich and even fewer from the gold itself.

Har not to see parallels with the current AI bubble.

4. watwut ◴[07 Dec 25 21:22 UTC] No.46185284[source]▶
> "AI" is going to do all the work for us, we are all going to get UBI then at some point as it grows the "ASI"

I don't see those companies promising that. They are bragging about being able to replace jobs for millions people and their CEOs are also simultaneously taking pretty dismissive attitude toward lesser people. If is more of "we will replace millions of people of eff you, billionaire class will become more powerful.

I am not saying it will realistically happen, I am saying that is what current messaging is.

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5. tim333 ◴[07 Dec 25 23:55 UTC] No.46186692[source]▶
Altman for one has mentioned that kind of thing.