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The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

(ceodinner.substack.com)
117 points LordAtlas | 2 comments | 07 Dec 25 16:43 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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bgwalter ◴[07 Dec 25 18:42 UTC] No.46183947[source]▶
It is worse than in 2000 now. Amazon, Microsoft all had good products back then. Amazon was in fact better than it is now.

"AI" hardly has any working products. Vibe coding is foisted upon companies by CEOs who want to promote their friends' products or who want to use it as an excuse for firing people or who have circular revenue agreements with other companies.

This is like the housing bubble of 2008 which was based on hot air and incorrect algorithms.

replies(2): >>46183996 #>>46184489 #
1. qgin ◴[07 Dec 25 18:47 UTC] No.46183996[source]▶
Amazon, Microsoft, Google all are profitable even despite their capex. Worst case scenario they stop spending on AI capex and go back to being ridiculously profitable instead of just comfortably profitable. There's no actual implosion for the big names.
replies(1): >>46184049 #
2. bgwalter ◴[07 Dec 25 18:54 UTC] No.46184049[source]▶
I'm not saying they will cease to exist. I'm saying that the Internet bubble of 2000 had valid tech whose growth was (deliberately) overestimated.

They can write it off and move on to other things. But that is not what the new wildfire talking point says. The wildfire framing says that the underlying tech is as valuable as the tech of 2000 was.