What happened to Transmeta, the last big dotcom IPO

I was an intel cpu architect when transmeta started making claims. We were baffled by those claims. We were pushing the limit of our pipelines to get incremental gains and they were claiming to beat a dedicated arch on the fly! None of their claims made sense to ANYONE with a shred of cpu arch experience. I think your summary has rose colored lenses, or reflects the layman’s perspective.

It was risky.

From my perspective it was more exciting to the programming systems and compiler community than to the computer architecture community.

I think this is a classic hill-climbing dilemma. If you start in the same place, and one org has worked very hard and spent a lot of money optimizing the system, they will probably come out on top. But if you start in a different place, reimagining the problem from first principles, you may or may not find yourself with a taller hill to climb. Decisions made very early on in your hill-climbing process lock you in to a path, and then the people tasked with optimizing the system later can't fight the organizational inertia to backtrack and pick a different path. But a new startup can.

It's worth noting that Google actually did succeed with a wildly different architecture a couple years later. They figured "Well, if CPU performance is hitting a wall - why use just one CPU? Why not put together thousands of commodity CPUs that individually are not that powerful, and then use software to distribute workloads across those CPUs?" And the obvious objection to that is "If we did that, it won't be compatible with all the products out there that depend upon x86 binary compatibility", and Google's response was the ultimate in hubris: "Well we'll just build new products then, ones that are bigger and better than the whole industry." Miraculously it worked, and made a multi-trillion-dollar company (multiple multi-trillion-dollar companies, if you now consider how AWS, Facebook, TSMC, and NVidia revenue depends upon the cloud).

Transmeta's mistake was that they didn't re-examine enough assumptions. They assumed they were building a CPU rather than an industry. If they'd backed up even farther they would've found that there actually was fertile territory there.

Wasn't Intel trying to do something similar in Itanium i.e. use software to translate code into VLIW instructions to exploit many parallel execution units? Only they wanted the C++ compiler to do it rather than a dynamic recompiler? At least some people in Intel thought that was a good idea.

I wonder if the x86 teams at Intel people were similarly baffled by that.

The Itanium felt like Intel trying on the same bet - move the speculative and analysis logic into the compiler and off the CPU. But where it differed is that it tried to leave some internal implementation details of that decoding process exposed so the compiler could call it directly, in a way that transmeta didn’t manage.

I wonder how long before we try it again.

> Well we'll just build new products then, ones that are bigger and better than the whole industry.

With blackjack, and hookers!

> It's worth noting that Google actually did succeed with a wildly different architecture a couple years later. They figured "Well, if CPU performance is hitting a wall - why use just one CPU? Why not put together thousands of commodity CPUs that individually are not that powerful, and then use software to distribute workloads across those CPUs?" And the obvious objection to that is "If we did that, it won't be compatible with all the products out there that depend upon x86 binary compatibility", and Google's response was the ultimate in hubris: "Well we'll just build new products then, ones that are bigger and better than the whole industry." Miraculously it worked, and made a multi-trillion-dollar company (multiple multi-trillion-dollar companies, if you now consider how AWS, Facebook, TSMC, and NVidia revenue depends upon the cloud).

Except "the cloud" at that point was specifically just a large number of normal desktop-architecture machines. Specifically not a new ISA or machine type, running entirely normal OS and libraries. At no point did Google or Amazon or Microsoft make people port/rewrite all of their software for cloud deployment.

At the point that Google's "bunch of cheap computers" was new, CPU performance was still rapidly improving. The competition was traditional "big iron" or mainframe systems, and the novelty was in achieving high reliability through distribution, rather than building on fault-tolerant hardware. By the time the rate of CPU performance improvement was slowing in the mid 2000s, large clusters smaller machines were omnipresent in supercomputing and HPC applications.

The real "new architecture(s)" of this century are GPUs, but much of the development and success of them is the result of many iterations and a lot of convergent evolution.

That’s revisionist. Transmeta set out to write a software like cpu core. That will always lose to dedicated hardware.

Itanium wasn’t really focusing on running x86 code. Intel wanted native Itanium software, and x86 execution was a bonus.