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789 points MindBreaker2605 | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.201s | source
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mehulashah ◴[] No.45899804[source]
Most of the folks on this topic are focused on Meta and Yann’s departure. But, I’m seeing something different.

This is the weirdest technology market that I’ve seen. Researchers are getting rewarded with VC money to try what remains a science experiment. That used to be a bad word and now that gets rewarded with billions of dollars in valuation.

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gdulli ◴[] No.45900784[source]
If a "science experiment" has the chance to displace most labor then whoever's successful at the experiment wins the economy, period. There's nothing weird or surprising about the logic of them obsessively chasing it. They all have to, it's a prisoner's dilemma.
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0_____0 ◴[] No.45900867[source]
Fusion power has the chance to displace most power generation, and whoever is successful at the experiment wins the energy economy, period. However given the long timelines, high cost of research, and the unanswered technical questions around materials that can withstand neutron flux, the total 2024 investment into fusion is only around $10B, versus AI's 250+B.

Why are these so different?

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1. yatopifo ◴[] No.45901630[source]
I think there are two reasons. First, with AI, you get see intermediate successes and, in theory, can derive profit from them. ChatGPT may not be profitable right now but in the longer run, users will be paying whatever they have to pay for it because they are addicted to using it. So it makes sense to try and get as many users as you can into your ecosystem as early as possible even if that means losses. With fusion, you won't see profitability for a very very long time.

The second reason is by how much it's going to be better in the end. Fusion has to compete with hydro, nuclear, solar and wind. It makes exactly the same energy, so the upside is already capped unlike with AI which brings something disruptive.