Also: 100 % cloud cover in basically all of Northern Europe :/ Iceland is probably the place to be for the aurora show!
replies(3):
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/pad_sid...
[1] https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/auroral...
Most of the time when someone says they are in the “North East of the UK” it’s not some Scotsman up in Shetland it is an English person who is currently in the North East of England.
The North East of England is in the middle part of the UK mainland.
If you see the red line on this plot^, the interplanetary magnetic field, be more than -10 nanotesla for about 4 hours then there's a good chance of lower than normal latitude aurora. Negative means the magnetic field is pointing downwards out of the ecliptic plane of the solar system and this is the most energetically favorable orientation for reconnecting CME magnetic field lines with Earth's magnetic field lines and letting solar particles/energy in.
It can be 20nT positive (upwards) magnetic field with intense density and high velocity but still be a non-event aurora-wise just because energy is delivered to the Earth's ring currents at 10x slower rate than if it's pointing downwards.
None of the WSA-ENLIL or related predictive models take into consideration the magnetic field orientation of iCMEs because it's really hard to know from remote observations. They can be thought of as warnings to pay attention to the ACE L1 measurements.
Update: tonight the sky is clear and the air is frigid. I guess this logically implies there won't be an aurora :)
I will leave any possible joke about being legless after a night out in Newcastle-upon-Tyne to the experts.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-severe-storm-levels-reache...
>G4 (Severe) Storm Levels Reached! published: Wednesday, November 12, 2025 01:40 UTC G4 (Severe) storm levels reached on 12 November at 0120 UTC (8:20pm EST)! Geomagnetic storm conditions are anticipated to continue into the night. Stay informed at spaceweather.gov for the latest. The included aurora images are of the aurora shining over northeastern Colorado.
Cell phone cameras see it better than people for whatever reason, so looking at it through your phone is an option.
Request for "very low latitude" pictures from a researcher here: https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3m5...
https://intermagnet.org/data_download.html
Example data, (Neumayer Station III in Antarctica)
https://imag-data.bgs.ac.uk/GIN_V1/GINForms2?observatoryIaga...
I wonder why there doesn't seem to be any website with a map view of all of the planet's magnetometers. Looks like there should be more than enough data to make an interesting livemap.
Here's a list of the sites,
https://www.gfz.de/en/section/geomagnetism/infrastructure/ge...
Not so much now, but maybe it'll come back!
[1] (Not a great photo, but you get the idea.) https://imgur.com/a/TfkcbJQ
PJM:
Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning
11.11.2025 19:25 (PJM times are Eastern Standard).
PJM-RTO
This is only a warning. There are no listed actions being taken. When you see Geomagnetic Disturbance Action, not just Warning, there's a problem. That happened most recently on June 1, 2025. Extra people are probably on standby all night in case something happens.
CAISO: Nothing.
ERCOT: Nothing.
Hydro-Québec: Multiple snow-related outages near Montreal and some other locations.
Background info from the last time HN got wound up about this.[1]
So you think this is simply wrong? (Like this)
Ireland is far enough north that we actually get the aurora somewhat regularly. We rarely have clear skies though, making it a true "planets align" thing to actually see it.
You might be confusing the U.K. with the USA where a pet of the country there wanted to leave and were refused and that did lead to war, and that happened far more recently than 700 years ago.
Discussed on HN here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32548085
I spoke about
https://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/services-et-publications/ap...
Look at the pictures from 3AM onwards on the 12 of November: you'll have a nice overview of how the aurora looked like from Switzerland (it's a time sensitive app and they certainly don't keep the pictures forever).
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusia...
Here is the SWPC forecast [0]
Time_UTC,Nov_12,Nov_13,Nov_14
00-03UT,8.67 (G4),6.67 (G3),4.67 (G1)
03-06UT,8.33 (G4),6.33 (G2),4.00
06-09UT,7.00 (G3),6.00 (G2),3.33
09-12UT,7.00 (G3),4.67 (G1),3.67
12-15UT,6.00 (G2),4.00,3.33
15-18UT,5.67 (G2),3.33,3.00
18-21UT,7.67 (G4),4.33,3.00
21-00UT,6.00 (G2),4.67 (G1),3.33
So I guess 18-21UTC today it'll get around 7.7kP, but that's lower than what hit this morning, when I'd expect X5.1 to be larger? Is that how I should interpret this?
[0] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusia...
However, predicting the effects of solar flares is very difficult. Not only does the particle stream have to hit the Earth, it has to couple with the magnetic field.
Large flares can cause small events on Earth and vice versa.
I enjoyed it for about 5 hours out here west of DFW. I hope the actual X5.1 event due to arrive in the next 3-5 hours will persist into the evening so I get another show.
"NG-2 Update: New Glenn is ready to launch. However, due to highly elevated solar activity and its potential effects on the ESCAPADE spacecraft, NASA is postponing launch until space weather conditions improve. We are currently assessing opportunities to establish our next launch window based on forecasted space weather and range availability."
[1]: https://www.space.com/aurora-colors-explained
[2]: https://www.nps.gov/articles/-articles-aps-v8-i1-c9.htm