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Addiction Markets

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384 points toomuchtodo | 3 comments | 31 Oct 25 17:42 UTC | HN request time: 0.632s | source
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sakopov ◴[31 Oct 25 22:48 UTC] No.45777555[source]▶
> Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong rattled off crypto buzzwords at the end of the Q3 call, resolving $84K in prediction market bets to "yes."

https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1984161085780263322

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alphazard ◴[31 Oct 25 23:02 UTC] No.45777671[source]▶
Polymarket is not even close to the same thing. Sports betting allows a blessed few corporations to run rigged markets and intentionally prevent price discovery by keeping the smart money out.

Polymarket uses open orderbooks where you match against someone else who wants the other side of the trade just like the stock market. Prices are set by the market, as they should be.

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1. exogeny ◴[01 Nov 25 03:03 UTC] No.45778920[source]▶
That is completely wrong. Who is the other peer in your transaction on Polymarket or Kalshi?

Susquehanna. Jane Street. Two Sigma.

It's not some rando two towns over. The PMs get paid to front run access to these market makers, who crush the retail bettor, er, predictor.

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2. noitpmeder ◴[01 Nov 25 05:02 UTC] No.45779379[source]▶
What do you mean here by front run? Don't most of these exchanges use normal limit books with visible resting orders available to trade against?

My understanding was that these shops were acting more as market makers, with the idea of guaranteeing liquidity and tight spreads in some number of markets.

If you think the listed bid-ask spread is mispriced you're more than welcome to move the market to whatever price you think is more appropriate.

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3. Karrot_Kream ◴[01 Nov 25 05:36 UTC] No.45779478[source]▶
Yes they act as MMs. There's only so much edge they can get in prediction markets from their money skills alone.