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Addiction Markets

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383 points toomuchtodo | 5 comments | 31 Oct 25 17:42 UTC | HN request time: 0.641s | source
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sakopov ◴[31 Oct 25 22:48 UTC] No.45777555[source]▶
> Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong rattled off crypto buzzwords at the end of the Q3 call, resolving $84K in prediction market bets to "yes."

https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1984161085780263322

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alphazard ◴[31 Oct 25 23:02 UTC] No.45777671[source]▶
Polymarket is not even close to the same thing. Sports betting allows a blessed few corporations to run rigged markets and intentionally prevent price discovery by keeping the smart money out.

Polymarket uses open orderbooks where you match against someone else who wants the other side of the trade just like the stock market. Prices are set by the market, as they should be.

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1. jerednel ◴[01 Nov 25 01:37 UTC] No.45778562[source]▶
It’s not that hard to look at lines at Pinnacle and Circa and make estimates about the fair value of a wager. Open accounts at every book and line shop and maximize expected value.

Also you are ignoring platforms like Novig which are like the polymarket for sports betting.

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2. omcnoe ◴[01 Nov 25 03:08 UTC] No.45778937[source]▶
Betting platforms specifically work to identify customers who act in such ways and ban them from the platform. Developing accurate odds costs money, it's cheaper to just identify "advantage bettors" and ban them.
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3. noitpmeder ◴[01 Nov 25 05:06 UTC] No.45779394[source]▶
I'm not sure this applies to these prediction markets. Normally when gambling you're at a casino playing e.g. blackjack, where if you're winning more often than expected you're taking the house's money.

But this is more like playing poker, where overall the casino could care less if you're continuously crushing the other players, as long as people keep turning up to play and they keep getting a rake.

4. csomar ◴[01 Nov 25 07:26 UTC] No.45779842[source]▶
There is no comparison. A quick search about Pinnacle: https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/kek5t8/warning_...

My experience (though I have never bet on these platforms) is that Pinnacle-like platforms almost never let you withdraw your "earnings". They are essentially a bookie.

Polymarket on the other hand, is just an exchange. And they use Defi to make sure you can always withdraw your bounty even if you get "front-end" banned from their platform.

So to affirm the previous poster: These companies are not in the same business.

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5. jerednel ◴[01 Nov 25 19:01 UTC] No.45784333[source]▶
They absolutely let you withdraw earnings. I place around 20 wagers a day. Pinnacle and Circa are used as measures of what the market is actually pricing in. You can devig lines to arrive at event likelihoods. From there you can line shop such that your expected value is positive over the long run.