Reasoning models reason well, until they don't

The key point the paper seems to make is that existing benchmarks have relatively low complexity on reasoning complexity, so they made a new dataset DeepRD with arbitrarily large reasoning complexity and demonstrated that existing models fail at a complex enough problem. Complexity is defined from the complexity of a graph created by modeling the problem as a graph and determining the traversals needed to go from some source node to a target node.

My main critique is that I don't think there's evidence that this issue would persist after continuing to scale models to be larger and doing more RL. With a harness like what coding agents do these days and with sufficient tool use, I bet models could go much further on that reasoning benchmark. Otherwise, if the reasoning problem were entirely done within a single context window, it's expected that a complex enough reasoning problem would be too difficult for the model to solve.

So the answer is a few more trillion?

It’s a worthwhile answer if it can be proven correct because it means that we’ve found a way to create intelligence, even if that way is not very efficient. It’s still one step better than not knowing how to do so.

So we're sending a trillion on faith?

No, that’s not what I said.

Why are we sending the trillion?