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Addiction Markets

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383 points toomuchtodo | 39 comments | | HN request time: 1.522s | source | bottom
1. brettgriffin ◴[] No.45775525[source]
The problem isn't the 70M people who placed bets, its the ~25M with broken risk aversion.

These are mostly men, and a very specific type of men. You can try to curtail their access to gambling but we're missing the underlying problem.

replies(11): >>45775571 #>>45775576 #>>45775803 #>>45775946 #>>45776336 #>>45776523 #>>45777504 #>>45777612 #>>45777661 #>>45779874 #>>45783701 #
2. ◴[] No.45775571[source]
3. palmotea ◴[] No.45775576[source]
> These are mostly men, and a very specific type of men. You can try to curtail their access to gambling but we're missing the underlying problem.

You should address that too, but gambling is frankly a parasitic business meant to exploit such people, and we should not let the perfect be the enemy of the good by avoiding the re-abolishment of such a pernicious industry.

4. hollerith ◴[] No.45775803[source]
Well, sure, but it is unlikely that we can fix the underlying problem: the science of psychology is not advanced enough.
5. michaelt ◴[] No.45775946[source]
Has society ever addressed an underlying psychological problem successfully?

Because when it comes to the underlying psychological causes of homelessness and drug addiction and school shootings and violent extremism my impression is we don’t really do much.

replies(4): >>45776050 #>>45776535 #>>45779367 #>>45780497 #
6. brettgriffin ◴[] No.45776050[source]
I'm an optimist at heart, but this subject is dear to me, and my opinion may seem pessimistic: the short answer is, no, it cannot be fixed at any large scale, at least not in a lifetime.
replies(1): >>45776170 #
7. squigz ◴[] No.45776170{3}[source]
Large-scale societal change requires generations of work, indeed. That may be disheartening, but it is the way it is, and we should continue to work toward those changes.
replies(1): >>45776343 #
8. b00ty4breakfast ◴[] No.45776336[source]
sure, and that should be addressed. But in the meantime, we shouldn't be making it easier for them to engage in that behavior and we shouldn't be making it easier for people to encounter industrialized gambling for the first time who would otherwise find the process too laborious to seek out on a whim.
9. fairmind ◴[] No.45776343{4}[source]
Anti-Smoking, especially in teenagers, seems to have been successful.
replies(2): >>45778128 #>>45778738 #
10. matthewdgreen ◴[] No.45776523[source]
These gambling businesses specifically target that 25M. You absolutely can make that much harder for businesses to do, and it will significantly reduce downstream misery.
replies(1): >>45776609 #
11. skippyboxedhero ◴[] No.45776535[source]
Do all of these occur with equal proportion in every country/culture?

I am not sure what you are saying with homelessness...it isn't some massive baffling issue, someone who doesn't have a house, needs a house so build a house? School shootings...I don't understand how anyone can believe this is normal?

The US has fairly obvious social problems, these essentially inhibit the functional resolution of most of these problems you list. However, gambling is not like this, the solution to problem gambling is (obviously) regulating gambling so that it is possible for the government to control people's behaviour. Simple.

Homelessness? Build houses. Drug addiction? Get people clean, harsh sentences for dealing. School shootings? No guns. Violent extremism? Jail. These aren't real problems. Most of the world does not have issues with this stuff (I will accept through drug usage in the US appears to be so ingrained in culture, that it would never be possible for anyone to do anything to fix it...the solutions are known however). It is only over the last ten years or so where government has appeared totally unable to do anything because of paralyzing social discord.

replies(2): >>45777943 #>>45778298 #
12. Karrot_Kream ◴[] No.45776609[source]
This is the logic behind the war on drugs and we all saw how that turned out. Obviously there's nuance to be had as I think some vices, in both type and magnitude, are worse/more destructive than others. But crusades against vice rarely turn out well. Instead you'll see the same people huddled around in underground betting rooms and backroom card game tables where organized crime or just other muscle-for-hire are ready to break your knees for not paying your debt back.
replies(3): >>45776655 #>>45777719 #>>45777965 #
13. dwaltrip ◴[] No.45776655{3}[source]
There has to be more options than just the two you reference... not saying it’s easy, but we can’t just throw our hands up.
replies(1): >>45776730 #
14. Karrot_Kream ◴[] No.45776730{4}[source]
Yes but this article isn't it.

Using ideologically charged words like "corporate gambling" and "neoliberal origins" are fun ways to get the moral outrage going of market skeptics but they don't lead to good policy.

The boring answer is you need to look at how the owner of these instruments (since that's what most of these are) are making money. In the same way that a regulated exchange makes sure you're not dumping garbage onto order books, you need to make sure that the bets are fair and that there's generally positive EV. Prediction markets are a good example of this that isn't predatory but sports books are. Unfortunately this article, as is usual for most of the moral outrage genre, doesn't make this distinction.

15. danielmarkbruce ◴[] No.45777504[source]
I believe there are studies which show men are more likely to have problems with sports betting, but women are with slot machines. My anecdotal evidence (and it's bordering on statistically significant...) is that these studies are correct.
16. ◴[] No.45777612[source]
17. stocksinsmocks ◴[] No.45777661[source]
I would entertain the possibility that there are at least some who cannot or will not avoid that kind of destructive behavior. The only thing you can do for them is deny access. I know that nobody asked for a lecture on 12 step, but number one is an admission that you do not have control.

Do you enable the majority who can manage risk, knowing some will be destroyed by it or deny it to everyone to protect the minority who can’t?

replies(1): >>45778113 #
18. stocksinsmocks ◴[] No.45777719{3}[source]
I would not call the California strategy on drugs a success.
19. michaelt ◴[] No.45777943{3}[source]
It's a classic way of sweeping problems under the rug. Imagine you're a cynical politician.

A school shooting happens. You don't want to ban guns. So you say "switzerland doesn't have this problem, we need to address the mental health issues that are driving these young men to kill" as a distraction. Nobody's got a workable plan to do that, so you do nothing - which is what you wanted to begin with.

There are lots of rough sleepers. You don't want to build more houses. So you say "many homeless people are estranged from their support network by mental health issues and addiction, we need to address this underlying cause" as a distraction. Nobody's got a workable plan to do that, so you do nothing.

20. loeg ◴[] No.45777965{3}[source]
Dude, the war on gambling was going fine before it was legalized nationwide like 2 years ago. We don't have to have long memories to remember a time before omnipresent sports betting! It was fine!
replies(2): >>45778031 #>>45778142 #
21. Karrot_Kream ◴[] No.45778031{4}[source]
Sports betting is only one form of gambling, so I have no idea what you're talking about. This article, like your post it seems, is conflating the two and mixing in vague assertions of corporations and whatnot to add a layer of emotion that serves more to manipulate than to elucidate.

There's always been gambling in my lifetime. There's been legal ones like Indian Casinos and Vegas. Then there's been the below board ones, the private blackjack games, the mahjong parlors in shady parts of town, lottery players (it's okay if the government profits off the losers I guess lol), etc

If this article were talking about banning sports books and adding in regulation around retail betting then sure that would be a fun discussion. But hyperbole like the article and your copious use of exclamation points doesn't inspire confidence.

replies(1): >>45779007 #
22. ◴[] No.45778113[source]
23. wizzwizz4 ◴[] No.45778128{5}[source]
Vaping is counteracting that somewhat. (There's the perception among many kids that vaping is deeply uncool – and they'd be correct – but that's not something we can rely on.)
replies(2): >>45778337 #>>45780730 #
24. lotsofpulp ◴[] No.45778142{4}[source]
Fyi, the Supreme Court case that opened the floodgates for sports gambling was decided in May 2018, 7.5 years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy_v._National_Collegiate_...

replies(1): >>45778989 #
25. ux266478 ◴[] No.45778298{3}[source]
I'd rather we actually deal with the issues causing these things than sweep them under the rug and pretend like it's an actual solution.

> Build houses.

That doesn't solve homelessness, as we build many houses in America but they aren't being filled with the homeless. You need to apply social services in a complex systematic approach to provide housing that people can afford sustainably, and rehabilitate and integrate people into society. You might think that is a bit of a bad faith "gotcha" like, of course you have to make the housing free and ensure homeless people know it's available. But it's not a small detail to elide, even in context, and doing so is exactly why your thinking is off-base. You haven't even begun to unpack it properly, putting aside the falsehoods. Think about it, what do you do if someone doesn't want to accept the housing for complex reasons like pride or embarrassment? What if it's some crust punk kid riding suicide as a rite of passage? You have to deal with a lot of that! You can't just ignore it!

> Get people clean, harsh sentences for dealing.

Punitive measures have proven to be a complete and total failure globally. Even in Asia, where penalties on all sides of the drug trade are high, drug usage is very easy to find and rising. I say this as someone connected to Asia and with a fair amount of "street smarts" that some seem to lack. Japan and Korea don't even try to hide it anymore. Chinese cities are kept clean through a complex system of travel controls and consistent policing to sweep things under the rug. It's easy to score if you pass as Chinese outside of the tier 1 and 2 cities though. Even Saudi Arabia is flooded with black market drugs if you know where to look. Punitive measures empirically do not work.

> Violent extremism? Jail

Where is that not the case? Like what are you talking about? Do you know how common attempted domestic terrorism was against the US power grid and cell towers in 2020/2021? No, you don't. Almost nobody does, and certainly nobody has an exact number. That's because it was kept very quiet and the thousands of incidents were suppressed from the media cycle while the people involved were quietly thrown into the maximum security incarceration hole never to be seen again.

The person you're replying to is right. These issues are solved, and it means looking at why people want to do any of this to begin with and addressing that. You cut it off at the behavioral source. Think of it like this, do you check every pointer before you dereference it? No. You avoid bad pointer dereferences primarily through proper structure of your code.

You almost tap into this with being cognizant of the fact that it's not universal. It depends greatly on the country and culture. Because some countries and cultures have done a much better job at building worthwhile, healthy societies than others.

replies(2): >>45778613 #>>45779393 #
26. mattgreenrocks ◴[] No.45778337{6}[source]
Yep. Generational memory is short. Eventually our kids or our kids kids will try whatever smoking’s been rebranded to just to spite the adults. And the cycle begins anew.
27. phainopepla2 ◴[] No.45778613{4}[source]
> thousands of incidents were suppressed from the media cycle

Where can I read more about this?

replies(1): >>45778854 #
28. SoftTalker ◴[] No.45778738{5}[source]
Only if you don't count weed.
29. ux266478 ◴[] No.45778854{5}[source]
I'm not aware of any good reading material on it, and that's probably intentional. The FERC mentions the rise in power grid attacks somewhat in their annual report of 2023[1]. The incidents are underreported officially, and don't include police/FBI raids intercepting conspiracies, nor do they include the wave of attacks on cell towers. I only know about it because I spent quarantine in a community that had a nationwide dragnet of scanners listening exclusively for this stuff.

[1] - https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2023-05/23_Summer-A...

30. loeg ◴[] No.45778989{5}[source]
Yes, yes, referring to 7.5 as 2 is something called hyperbole.
31. loeg ◴[] No.45779007{5}[source]
The very recent complete nationwide legalization of sports betting is most of what people are mad about.
replies(1): >>45779469 #
32. laterium ◴[] No.45779367[source]
Housing prices are the strongest predictor of homelessness. Therefore, homelessness is not a moral failure of homeless individuals but of the NIMBY vetocracy that is the housing market.
33. laterium ◴[] No.45779393{4}[source]
Yes, building houses actually solves homelessness. Housing prices are the best predictor of homelessness and of course increasing supply of a good decreases its price. Why does the law of supply and demand not apply to housing? Sometimes the solution is very very simple and not at all complicated. Just build more.
replies(1): >>45788343 #
34. Karrot_Kream ◴[] No.45779469{6}[source]
That's not what the article and a lot of commenters here are saying though. The article makes vague insinuations about "corporate gambling".

If you're just targeting sports books I think other than the folks making money from the industry, you'll find few fans. They offer predatory parlays with often outright negative EV or very high variance returns. They kick sophisticated money out they can find edges. They leave no room for above board players like market makers providing liquidity through efficiency.

I think a better article and discussion could emerge from just tackling the harms of sports books.

35. csomar ◴[] No.45779874[source]
In 30 years they'll be a huge liability for the state. In the past, they used to send them to meat grinders (wars). Somehow later it was figured out that a mandatory cut of their paycheck will give them a small payment later in their retirement years. But now that social security is broken (both in the US and Europe) and short-term thinking is the norm, every "business men" is salivating at the opportunity.

In a couple decades, they'll be a massive drag on society and could even collapse countries. France is kind of a good example of how that future will look like.

36. owenversteeg ◴[] No.45780497[source]
Absolutely. A lot of it is upsettingly simple; make a given population wealthy, well-educated, with a strong community and you will slash rates of these issues tenfold. My home state of New Hampshire is one of the wealthiest, best-educated states in the US and despite easy access to tons of dangers (unlimited gun access, some of the cheapest vodka prices in the Western world, legal gambling, et cetera) we have low rates of the associated disorders. The NH homicide rate is on par with much of Europe, for example, nearly unheard of for a US state.
37. eszed ◴[] No.45780730{6}[source]
That's still an overall win, as vaping is less harmful than smoking.
38. JumpinJack_Cash ◴[] No.45783701[source]
> > The problem is the ~25M with broken risk aversion.

Problem for you maybe. A life lived in fear is not worth living at all

39. ux266478 ◴[] No.45788343{5}[source]
> Why does the law of supply and demand not apply to housing?

Who said it doesn't? How well do you understand the law of supply and demand when you don't know what a price floor is? Ignoring that, do you think someone on the street can afford even a $1000 home? That's before we set aside that this of course only works if the houses being built are being done in a way that actively encourages prices to go down, rather than feed real estate speculation and continue to float a culture that sees a home as a capital asset.

So no. Building houses alone does not solve homelessness, again as evidenced by the fact that houses are built all the time in America, and homelessness is not getting better. How did you miss that?