How OpenAI uses complex and circular deals to fuel its multibillion-dollar rise

These kinds of deals were very much a la mode just prior to the .com crash. Companies would buy advertising, then the websites and ad agencies would buy their services and they'd spend it again on advertising. The end result is immense revenues without profits.

There’s one key difference in my opinion: pre-.com deals were buying revenue with equity and nothing else. It was growth for growth’s sake. All that scale delivered mostly nothing.

OpenAI applies the same strategy, but they’re using their equity to buy compute that is critical to improving their core technology. It’s circular, but more like a flywheel and less like a merry-go-round. I have some faith it could go another way.

I think that, at best, that description boils down to Nvidia, Oracle, etc inventing fake wealth to build something and OpenAI building their own fake wealth by getting to use that new compute effectively for free.

There are physical products involved, but the situation otherwise feels very similar to ads prior to dotcom.

The same way the stock market invents a trillion dollars of fake wealth on a strong up day?

That's capital markets working as intended. It's not necessarily doomed to end in a fiery crash, although corrections along the way are a natural part of the process.

It seems very bubbly to me, but not dotcom level bubbly. Not yet anyway. Maybe we're in 1998 right now.

I think it's worse. The US market feels like a casino to me right now and grift is at an all time high. We're not getting good economic data, it's super unpredictable, and private equity is a disaster waiting to happen IMO. For sure there are smart people able to make money on the gamble, but it's not my jam.

I don't tend to benefit from my predictions as things always take longer to unfold than I think they will, but I'm beyond bearish at present. I'd rather play blackjack.