Depending on your POV OpenAI and the surrounding AI hype machine is at the extremes either the dawn of a new era, or a metastasized financial cancer that’s going to implode the economy. Reality lies in the middle, and nobody really knows how the story is going to end.
In my personal opinion, “financial innovation” (see: the weird opaque deals funding the frantic data center construction) and bullshit like these circular deals driving speculation is a story we’ve seen time and time again, and it generally ends the same way.
An organization that I’m familiar with is betting on the latter - putting off a $200M data center replacement, figuring they’ll acquire one or two in 2-3 years for $0.20 on the dollar when the PE/private debt market implodes.
The argument to moderation/middle ground fallacy is a fallacy.
The fallacy is that the true lies _at_ the middle, not in the middle.
This is totally fallacious.
"AI is a bubble" and "AI is going to replace all human jobs" is, essentially, the two extremes I'm seeing. AI replacing some jobs (even if partially) and the bubble-ness of the boom are both things that exist on a line between two points. Both can be partially true and exist anywhere on the line between true and false.
No jobs replaced<-------------------------------------->All jobs replaced
Bubble crashes the economy and we all end up dead in a ditch from famine<---------------------------------------->We all end up super rich in the post scarcity economy
For one, in higher dimensions, most of the volume of a hypersphere is concentrated near the border.
Secondly, and it is somewhat related, you are implicitly assuming some sort of convexity argument (X is maybe true, Y is maybe true, 0.5X + 0.5 Y is maybe true). Why?