Ground stop at JFK due to staffing

I suspect this shutdown will last a while, but I don’t think Republicans will have enough votes to open anything without Democrat buy-in. R needs 20% of the Ds to vote for R bills to get anything budget-changing passed (except the 1 Reconciliation per year that only requires a simple majority). Short of Dems feeling some insane pressure (eg. Military threats or somehow defunding of core government tasks like police, education, medical, Social Security), I don’t see that happening right now.

My point is that they won’t feel the need to ever “officially” re open the government.

I've mentioned it elsewhere, but: Republicans have enough votes to get moving on whatever they choose (including stopgap measures) regardless of what a minority of democrats may think: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_option

> The nuclear option can be invoked by a senator raising a point of order that contravenes a standing rule. The presiding officer would then overrule the point of order based on Senate rules and precedents; this ruling would then be appealed and overturned by a simple majority vote (or a tie vote), establishing a new precedent. The nuclear option is made possible by the principle in Senate procedure that appeals from rulings of the chair on points of order relating to nondebatable questions are themselves nondebatable. The nuclear option is most often discussed in connection with the filibuster. Since cloture is a nondebatable question, an appeal in relation to cloture is decided without debate. This obviates the usual requirement for a two-thirds majority to invoke cloture on a resolution amending the Standing Rules.

It looks like they are already talking about it again in the news.

The Republicans don't want to get rid of the filibuster because they're scared of setting the precedent, they're scared because if they continue to pass bills with zero Democrat votes then they have to own full responsibility for what happens. Recession/depression is quickly approaching...

I don't think they're scared at all.

Instead, I think that crash-and-burn, and then blame the other guy, was the plan all along.

Deflecting all blame towards the other guy has been the standard practice for at least multiple decades now. It's not something that is kept in the pocket and used for special occasions; that play has instead been a constant in US national politics for a rather long time now.

The only new part with this administration is actively throwing monkey wrenches into the works and then acting all surprised when things break, or just failing to admit that they've broken a thing. (But they're not stupid; they knew that doing this would break stuff.)

I don’t buy that reasoning. They clearly don’t care about their blame claims matching reality, so they will continue to lie about causes. The same with norms — they don’t stop breaking the norms of the US government and politics during Trump’s terms.

That said, there does seem to be something which has thus far kept them from changing the cloture/filibuster rules to pass bills with a simple majority. I’m curious if the “Freedom Caucus” is fearful of Republican leadership so they are still holding the Sword of Damocles over the role of the Speaker of the House.

They are now also only 20 days away from completely owning the shutdown. The CR bill they are voting on, that the House passed, was only for thru November 21st. The House will need to show up to do business to vote and pass a new funding bill, lest they be the ones preventing a funding bill getting passed. They're also scared of having to convene because they are scared they will have to vote on releasing the Epstein files.