AI capex is so big that it's affecting economic statistics

I don't know... 1.2% of GDP just doesn't seem that extreme to me. Certainly nowhere near "eating the economy" level compared to other transformative technologies or programs like:

- Apollo program: 4%

- Railroads: 6% (mentioned by the author)

- Covid stimulus: 27%

- WW2 defense: 40%

> Apollo program: 4%

More than a decade long. The technology and industry here was broadly shared. They did things like highjacked bra manufacturers to make space suits.

> Railroads: 6% (mentioned by the author)

We're still using this investment today.

> Covid stimulus: 27%

The virus that was killing us the fizzled is probably not the best example... Only arguments will ensue if I even attempt to point thing out in this one.

> WW2 defense: 40%

I mean Russia made its last lend lease payment in 2006. It lead to America dominance of the globe. It looks like an investment that paid it self off.

How much of the hardware spend on AI is going to be usable in 5years?

There are some deep fundamental questions one should be asking if they pay attention to the hardware space. Who is going to solve the power density problem? Does their solution mean we're moving to exotic cooling (hint: yes)? Have we hit another Moores law style wall (IPC is flat and we dont have a lot of growth left in clock, back to that pesky power and cooling problem). If a lot of it is usable in 5 years thats great, but then the industry isnt going to get any help from the hardware side and thats a bad omen for "scaling".

Meanwhile capex does not include power, data, constables or people. It may include training, but we know that can't be amortized. (how long does a trained system last before you need another, or before you need a continuation/update).

Everyone is going after AI under the assumption that they can market capture, or build some sort of moat, or... The problem is that no one has come up with the killer app where the tech will pay for itself. And many in the industry are smart enough not to try to build their product on someone else's platform (cause rug pulls are a thing).

"AI" could go the way of 3d tv's, VR, metaverse, where the hype never meets up with hope. That doesn't mean we wont get a bunch of great tooling out of it. It is going to need less academics and more engineering (and for that hardware costs have to drop...)