- Apollo program: 4%
- Railroads: 6% (mentioned by the author)
- Covid stimulus: 27%
- WW2 defense: 40%
Slightly off-topic, but ~9% of GDP is generated by "financial services" in the US. Personally I think it's a more alarming data point.
Financial services makes the unrealistic consumption of rich countries possible. That’s worth 9%.
The finance industry's ability to teleport value across time and space is a massive boon for quality of life across the world.
Trivially verifiable by Visa’s revenue being $35B, which is not even close to 1% of just US GDP (about $30T).
And the industry itself greases the wheels of other industries. In other words without financial services like lending and payment processing there would be less spending and investment overall, so other industries would shrink along with it.
More concerning to me are that these visualizations are not so trivial to find. Here's one
https://www.bea.gov/system/files/gdp1q25-3rd-chart-03_0.png
Health care is growing but not as much as real estate
Banking used to really suck. Walk into an old bank building and it looks empty with spaces for a dozen tellers never actually used, this is a good thing as nobody actually wants to stand in line at a bank. People have largely stopped using cash because swiping a card is just more pleasant.
Meanwhile payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) have over a 50% profit margin, that’s a huge loss for the US economy. Financial services dropping to 1% of the overall economy would represent a vast improvement over the current system.
He was convicted of fraud a few years later.
If it were, why do we have more than one company?
> I take your point that companies themselves are usually centrally planned internally
Well, sort of. It is true that companies exist solely for the reason of exploiting efficiencies in central planning. If central planning was always inefficient, companies wouldn't exist! But, as I alluded to earlier, no company has found central planning to be efficient in all cases. Not even the largest company in the world centrally plans everything. Not even close.
As with most things in life, a bit of balance will serve you well.
Singapore: 5.6%, 82.9
Israel: 7.2%, 83.2
Estonia: 6.9%, 78.5
Poland: 6.7, 78.5
Luxembourg: 5.7%, 83.4
Czech Republic: 8.1%, 79.9
France: 11.9%, 82.9
Japan: 11.5%, 84
Portugal: 10.5%, 82.3
Spain: 10.7%, 83.9
The Retail Bank's main function isn't providing cash either, it's keeping deposits which they loan out for profits. Whether you use cards or cash won't affect those margins.
Interesting to see countries like Spain and Italy, where the spend is one third of the US but the life expectancy is significantly higher.
visa is saving the country a lot of time/money.
This drives an enormous amount of innovation, and the near complete dominance of US healthcare companies in the west reflects that.
The US moving to a universal healthcare model would likely kill the lucrative US market, and while providing cheaper healthcare, it likely wouldn't make them dramatically cheaper while also having the effect of driving up costs in other western countries.
A bit like a balloon, where the profits are swelled in the US and limp elsewhere, squeezing the US will ha global effects.
Or your retirement account. Everyone is mad about investors and companies making money. Sure, there are ultra wealthy people (mostly founders) that benefit disproportionately. However, most people who hope to retire some day rely on a 401k, pension, etc which is dependent on stocks. Retirement accounts have about $36T in the US, mostly in equities and corporate bonds.
Typically, central planning does not imply micromanagement. The "broad direction" you speak of is the central planning.
> Companies are reorganizing for efficiency all the time.
But, of course, companies wouldn't exist if markets were perfectly efficient. The sole reason for companies is to exploit the efficiencies of central planning. But, of course, just as if markets were perfectly efficient there would be no companies, if central planning was perfectly efficient there would only be one company, so... Like always, there are tradeoffs that we have to find balance in.
While LLM’s are nowhere near this capacity today, it’s likely future AI systems will be able to handle such complexities just fine. Competition + automation means the financial sector really is on a long term decline. Some things aren’t automated due to customer preference, but preferences change over time.
> The Retail Bank's main function isn't providing cash either, it's keeping deposits which they loan out for profits. Whether you use cards or cash won't affect those margins.
The margins on loans have decreased significantly as shown by much lower effective interest rates relative to inflation.
The effort associated with loans have been reduced significantly as credit checks, automated repayment, etc have reduced the risks and overhead. Competition between banks means their profits are a function of costs, thus driving down costs has reduced in the overhead on loans.
The richest 1% own half the wealth in the world and the gap is getting wider. Since 2020, for every dollar of new global wealth gained by someone in the bottom 90%, one of the world’s billionaires has gained $1.7 million. (Source: https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/wealth-inequality-o...)
So yes, some of the wealth is going to your retirement account. But for every penny going to a middle-class professional workers retirement, there's about a thousand dollars going to some hedge fund manager or the trust fund of the grandson of some robber baron who got rich a hundred years ago.