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279 points bookofjoe | 47 comments | | HN request time: 2.071s | source | bottom
1. mikert89 ◴[] No.44609276[source]
The big secret is that they could detect cancer very early in most people, but the health care companies don't want to pay for the screening. You can pay out of pocket for these procedures. I was told this by a cancer researcher

EDIT:

Adding these caveats:

1. There is a ton of nuance in the diagnosis, since most people have a small amount of cancer in their blood at all times

2. The screenings are 5-10k + follow up appointments to actually see if its real cancer

3. All in cost then could be much higher per person

4. These tests arent something that are currently produced to be used at mass scale

replies(7): >>44609315 #>>44609327 #>>44609340 #>>44609391 #>>44609453 #>>44609460 #>>44609781 #
2. melling ◴[] No.44609315[source]
Probably not true. It’s much cheaper to catch cancer early than to treat advanced cancer later
replies(3): >>44609371 #>>44609376 #>>44609700 #
3. deadbabe ◴[] No.44609327[source]
Wrong.

The usual story is that you’re just better off not knowing because you’ll end up doing more harm than good chasing every little suspicious diagnosis. Cancer happens all the time, but many times doesn’t lead to anything.

4. delfinom ◴[] No.44609340[source]
Health insurers would absolutely pay for the screennig if the sum spent on screening everyone was cheaper than long term cancer care.

It's the same reason they pay for annual physicals in the first place.

replies(1): >>44609367 #
5. mikert89 ◴[] No.44609367[source]
Nah the tests can go up to 10k per person
replies(1): >>44609397 #
6. mikert89 ◴[] No.44609371[source]
Nope, the cost is 5-10k maybe more, and there is alot of nuance and follow ups to those detections
7. HPsquared ◴[] No.44609376[source]
That's true in the case someone actually does have cancer, but what about paying for all the negative tests?
8. doctoring ◴[] No.44609391[source]
The not so big secret is that we can detect cancer early in a lot of people, but we also would detect a lot of not-cancer. We don't currently know the cost/benefit of that tradeoff for all these new types of screening, and therefore insurers and health systems are reluctant to pay the cost of the both screening and the subsequent workup. This is not just a financial consideration, though the financial part is a big part -- the workup for those that end up as not-cancer has non-negligible risks for the patients as well (I have had patients of mine suffer severe injury and even die from otherwise routine biopsies), and on top of that, some actual cancers may not really benefit from early discovery in the first place.

This is not to downplay the potential benefit of early cancer detection... which is huge. And in the US/UK anyway, there are ongoing large trials to try to figure some of this stuff out in the space of blood-based cancer screening, as part of the path to convincing regulatory bodies and eventual reimbursement for certain tests. As mentioned, you can currently at least get the Galleri test out of pocket (<$1k, not cheap, but not exorbitant either), as well as whole body MRIs (a bit more expensive, ~$2-5k).

replies(3): >>44609408 #>>44609546 #>>44610035 #
9. graeme ◴[] No.44609397{3}[source]
>if the sum spent on screening everyone was cheaper than long term cancer care
10. mikert89 ◴[] No.44609408[source]
Yeah, after a detection there is alot of work to determine if what they detected should be worried about. But this doesnt take away from the fact that cancer can be detected very early, and these screenings could easily save your life
replies(2): >>44609445 #>>44609568 #
11. rscho ◴[] No.44609445{3}[source]
... or could do you harm, which is an important point.
replies(2): >>44609571 #>>44610292 #
12. agumonkey ◴[] No.44609453[source]
But what could we expect as fair price if mass scale production happens ?
13. daedrdev ◴[] No.44609460[source]
Doing this could be actively worse for you and society based on the false positive rate. Testing and accidental unneeded treatment carry very real risks that could lead to net suffering and more death or damage if enough people are tested.
replies(1): >>44609499 #
14. mikert89 ◴[] No.44609499[source]
This is a collectivist opinion on something which is very personal
replies(3): >>44609534 #>>44609661 #>>44614602 #
15. rscho ◴[] No.44609534{3}[source]
It's not personal, it's perfectly rational statistics, i.e. epidemiology. Designing screening strategies is not an amateur's game.
16. DiscourseFan ◴[] No.44609546[source]
Most healthy, active people who eat decently, get enough rest, and avoid drinking and smoking, will be able to eliminate cancer as it comes up. The only people who would benefit from these screenings are already unhealthy and cancer might be just one of many potential conditions they could experience—the goal of healthcare is not to dedicate an inordinate amount of resources for procedures that may amount to not much of any long term benefit.

People talk about the “immune system” but they are really referring to a number of systems the body uses to regulate itself, more or less successfully, around environmental pressures. The body is a system under tension, sometimes extreme tension leads to extreme success (success here being growth of power), sometimes it breaks the body, and sometimes the systems have been slowly failing for a while, and most treatments will not help. Medicine is only useful in the specific case where the power of the body would be promoted if not for one thing, that the body would be healthy, at least manageably so, without that issue.

replies(2): >>44609636 #>>44609695 #
17. jmcgough ◴[] No.44609568{3}[source]
There's not a lot of evidence that full body MRIs are beneficial. A lot of people have pre-cancerous growths that may or may not become cancer in the future, so you may just be giving them unnecessary surgery, and surgeries are not risk-free. If you don't operate, they might develop an anxiety disorder.

We do a lot of CT imaging in the emergency department and it sucks if we incidentally find an abnormal growth in a young patient's CT head. These are usually benign and often not worth performing brain surgery to get a biopsy.

replies(2): >>44609613 #>>44613320 #
18. ospray ◴[] No.44609571{4}[source]
To clarify is the harm that many healthy people would stress while it was confirmed the detection was not cancer?
replies(1): >>44609656 #
19. ospray ◴[] No.44609613{4}[source]
I had one at detected at 5mm close to the amigdala and they just scanned again in 3-6 months on MRI to prove it wasn't growing. That was a decade ago.
20. rscho ◴[] No.44609656{5}[source]
No, the potential harm comes from follow-up tests. That's why screening strategies are designed by professionals. It's a pretty complex field, and all the people here fielding their opinions on how we should proceed about tests don't have a single idea about the implications of their theories.
replies(1): >>44609757 #
21. daedrdev ◴[] No.44609661{3}[source]
Would you take a test if doing so statistically increases your probability of death?

Is it moral for a doctor to give a test they think is going to increase someone's chance of death.

replies(1): >>44610281 #
22. cogman10 ◴[] No.44609695{3}[source]
> Most healthy, active people who eat decently, get enough rest, and avoid drinking and smoking, will be able to eliminate cancer as it comes up

Incorrect.

There are tons of cancers that hide and mask with symptoms common to other symptoms. Kidney cancer, for example, presents pretty similarly to both kidney stones and UTIs. Even blood in the urine isn't proof positive that anything is wrong beyond either of those conditions. And, by the time blood is in the urine, it's often too late.

Liver cancer is even worse. The first symptoms you get can be thought of as a simple pulled muscle, just a little ache in the back. By the time you have appreciable problems, like turning yellow, it's quite advanced and too late to really do much.

There are common cancers like colon, skin, breast, and prostate that more fit your description of being mostly harmless so long as you get regular screenings and eat healthy. But, for every part of the body, a cancer can form and the symptoms are very often invisible.

I'm unfortunately all too familiar with how cancer looks. My wife currently has stage 4 cancer that started as kidney cancer. She does not drink or smoke, gets enough rest, and is very active.

replies(2): >>44609824 #>>44617141 #
23. vasco ◴[] No.44609700[source]
Yeah but then you'd go through life having biopsies all the time. If all people did a full body MRI almost everyone would have weird lumps that doctors would have to biopsy to be really sure, and then what do you do? Do you biopsy yourself every time some weird tissue appears? Most of those will be nothing and you'll be going through the complications of surgeries and anesthesia all the time just to always make sure.
replies(2): >>44609780 #>>44610064 #
24. mikert89 ◴[] No.44609757{6}[source]
this is medical gate keeping ("only the holy priests can practice medicine"), please take this attitude elsewhere
replies(4): >>44609828 #>>44609894 #>>44609950 #>>44614531 #
25. rwmj ◴[] No.44609780{3}[source]
Assuming some future MRI technology which was very cheap, wouldn't you have MRIs at fairly regular intervals, to first see if the lump was growing or changing shape? And if this was being done at population scale, you'd train up an AI on the known outcomes, to have it flag up problems for a human to review.
26. andsoitis ◴[] No.44609781[source]
> The big secret is that they could detect cancer very early in most people, but the health care companies don't want to pay for the screening.

thanks for adding the caveats; they suggest that there are good reasons why it isn't clear cut that health care companies should pay.

27. unsupp0rted ◴[] No.44609824{4}[source]
What's a good way for an otherwise healthy person to screen for kidney cancer, in terms of trade-offs?

Annual MRI?

replies(2): >>44609957 #>>44610808 #
28. rscho ◴[] No.44609894{7}[source]
Honestly, you don't have access to the necessary data to make rational decisions. That's not gatekeeping, it's logic. I don't have access to it either, although I'm indeed a healthcare pro. Screening strategies are a hyperspecialized domain and only experts somewhat understand what they're doing. It's just like making theories about what the CERN guys should be doing while not having passed physics 101 with no access to experimental data. That's why I'm just saying: you're certainly allowed to question, but you certainly can't make up assertions either.
29. _coveredInBees ◴[] No.44609950{7}[source]
What a ridiculous statement to make. No wonder the US is in the state it is in. Lets let the ignorant and uninformed decide on policy rather than the scientific community and experts. What could possibly go wrong?
30. cogman10 ◴[] No.44609957{5}[source]
IDK TBH. My wife had all the general recommended screenings. The only thing that showed potential problems was slightly elevated WBC. It was ultimately what they thought was a UTI that stayed a little too long that got us to get a CT and ultimately the diagnosis.

I do wonder if a 5 year whole body MRI or CT would be generally beneficial for the population. I don't think it needs to be Annual to have benefits.

The problem is it really isn't uncommon for your body to create random puss fill sacks all over the place. It's one thing our cancer doctor warned us about. My wife is now on a 6 month CT regimen and ultimately, they'll just ignore new lumps.

31. PaulHoule ◴[] No.44610035[source]
Or cancers that aren't clinically relevant.

Many prostate cancers, for instance, are slow growing and won't kill you before something else does. If you try to take that kind of cancer out surgically or zap it with radiation or chemo the side effects could be severe.

replies(1): >>44610788 #
32. cogman10 ◴[] No.44610064{3}[source]
Assuming MRIs weren't exorbitantly expensive, then the answer would probably be to simply rescan a month or 2 later and biopsy the lumps that don't go away.
33. twothreeone ◴[] No.44610281{4}[source]
That's just wrong. Taking a test doesn't do anything to the data-generating process, your chance of death is 100%. The test merely informs your posterior about the timing of the event.
replies(1): >>44610932 #
34. terminalshort ◴[] No.44610292{4}[source]
How could the screening do you harm? (other than financial)
replies(1): >>44610346 #
35. rscho ◴[] No.44610346{5}[source]
What are you gonna do if the screening test comes back positive?
replies(1): >>44611691 #
36. brudgers ◴[] No.44610788{3}[source]
Treatments for prostate cancer are consistently improving. And what makes sense when you are 55 might be different than what does at 75…like all health care issues.
37. brudgers ◴[] No.44610808{5}[source]
Talking to your doctor is the simplest thing that might work.
replies(1): >>44611003 #
38. rscho ◴[] No.44610932{5}[source]
The timing is pretty important to most people, and is actually the whole point of taking the test in the first place so the generating process and the test are not independent. See ?! What you said is just wrong too ! ;-)
39. jacobgkau ◴[] No.44611003{6}[source]
My NP would tell me "nothing to worry about" whether she knows what's going on or not, but that's beside the point.

GP wasn't asking what they should personally do. They were asking how the doctor would screen for it. (The truth is, the doctor can't/won't-- an annual MRI on every otherwise healthy person, for example, would be prohibitively expensive with how MRIs are currently set up-- and as another commenter pointed out, findings from those can be just as easily ignored or put off until it's too late.)

replies(1): >>44611115 #
40. brudgers ◴[] No.44611115{7}[source]
but that's beside the point

Being beside that hypochondric point is statistically a much healthier place to be.

The current state of medicine is the current state of medicine in the actual world.

41. terminalshort ◴[] No.44611691{6}[source]
Get treated for the cancer you will now survive because you just caught early. The answer is so obvious I think I may have misunderstood what you mean here.
replies(2): >>44613391 #>>44613528 #
42. lokrian ◴[] No.44613320{4}[source]
Why not just rescan them every few months to see if it's still growing? After all, you wouldn't have to rescan the full body, just the section where the growth is.
43. rscho ◴[] No.44613391{7}[source]
The fact that this answer is so obvious to you means you have to read up on diagnostic test performance and how screening works, because it's in fact not obvious at all. I mean that in the nicest way possible. Those companies offering expensive screening are not what they seem. Whether their offering is useful or whether they're just swindling you is a question that needs lots of time, money and sweat to answer.
44. fragmede ◴[] No.44613528{7}[source]
What if it's just some lump that would not have developed into cancer? The surgery to get it removed isn't risk free.
45. surgical_fire ◴[] No.44614531{7}[source]
"my ignorance is as valid as your knowledge"

The internet is a powerful tool of communication, but turns out some people don't have anything worthwhile to communicate.

46. surgical_fire ◴[] No.44614602{3}[source]
Public healthcare policy is absolutely not something personal.

It involves costs of healthcare for all people involved, workload on health professionals, hospital occupancy, etc and so forth.

If the rate of false positives in these tests are too high, people that need treatment for their actual illnesses might be on a waiting list because too many are doing follow-up screening and biopsies for non-issues.

And to address your silly "collectivist" fear-mongering, your hyper-individualist mentality is a societal disease. We could do with some more collectivism, in the sense that people have a better understanding of the constraints and conditions of the society they are inserted in.

47. DiscourseFan ◴[] No.44617141{4}[source]
No I mean that people who are healthy in general are less likely (or completely unlikely) to “get cancer” in the first place because cancer is something that has more to do with an immune system failure, which happens due to unhealthy lifestyles or genetic problems in general which are unavoidable. Cancer only affects people who generally already have other problems (old, sick, unhealthy lifestyles etc.) and young people because they are growing very quickly.

Thus, in young people cancer presents rapidly as they develop, these screenings are expensive and unnecessary. For old/sick/unhealthy people, or people who are predisposed to certain cancers, they will probably get something else anyway, so its an expensive workup to help treat a disease that won’t actually benefit much in the long term.

I’m not against treating cancer, however let’s recognize that cancer treatment is already an expensive and resource/labor intensive process. And 10yr survival rates are not great for most cancers, we’re only slowing the burn, not stopping it. Sometimes you get lucky and die of something else before the cancer can come back, but nobody is ever “cured,” they are all just delaying the inevitable. Which, as we have seen, can sometimes be worth it (who wouldn’t want another 10 years with a loved one?), but that doesn’t mean our goal should be to find a way to “cure” cancer, it should be to find a way to better manage it, and these screenings don’t seem like they really are, or at least the use-cases for them are minimal.