For example, if I prompt ChatGPT: "Write me a BF program that produces the alphabet, but inverts the position of J & K" it will deterministically fail. I've never even seen one that produces the alphabet the normal way. I can run a GP algorithm over an example of the altered alphabet string and use simple MSE to get it to evolve a BF program that actually emits the expected output.
The BPE tokenizer seems like a big part of the problem when considering the byte-per-instruction model, but fundamentally I don't think there is a happy path even if we didn't need to tokenize the corpus. The expressiveness of the language is virtually non-existent. Namespaces, type names, member names, attributes, etc., are a huge part of what allows for a LLM to lock on to the desired outcome. Getting even one byte wrong is catastrophic for the program's meaning. You can get a lot of bytes wrong in C/C++/C#/Java/Go/etc. (e.g. member names) and still have the function do exactly the same thing.