Climate Change Tracker

If you pull up the last 2,000 years in the Yearly Average Observed Temperature anomaly, from 536 - 537 there should be a global average temperature anomaly of -2C to -5C from the Volcanic Winter of 536 (A period of 18 months where the sun was dimmed by volcanic ash), but the graph shows <1C. There's tree ring evidence of it from all over the world.

If they missed this, this puts into question all the rest of the data IMO.

Large models, such as climate models, which are among the largest are highly vulnerable to high variance because of the high dimensionality of their parameter sets.

Say you have n continuous parameters to your mode. This equates to an n dimensional polygon. Unless you a high iteration Monte Carlo technique the output of your model is going to depend on where exactly your estimator point in n degree space lands, and its accuracy will depend on its distance from the actual (unknown) point in the set.

Now, many of the parameters in large models have never been measured. They are averages from the literature, or in cases where there is no literature, which is common in cutting edge science, the investigators guess.

If you look at the meta studies of climate models, which is what the IPCC uses to make projections, they come out all over the place. These models really aren't great prediction tools. They are best thought of as tools for understanding a the components of a complex system.

Covid was a perfect example: modeling was suggesting devastating impacts from covid, to which localities responded differently, some were aggressive, some were lax. It didn't seem to matter. Yes, one can find statistically significant instances where different covid responses led to higher mortality rates, but nothing substantial enough for any group to want to change what they did.

CO2 makes up 0.04% of the atmosphere and humanity is only responsible for 3% of its creation. We are making very fine grained estimated using a macro model. It's a bit like carving toothpicks with a chain saw.

> CO2 makes up 0.04% of the atmosphere and humanity is only responsible for 3% of its creation

What explains the remaining percent points then?

Atmospheric CO2 at the first measurement in ~1958 was ~318, latest in 2022 was ~419 (reading a plot on wikipedia[1]). Note that in 1958, the industrial revolution was already in history books, idk what pre-fossil-fuel values were. Going from 318 in 1958 to 419 in 2022 is +32%, you said 3%, so there's a few missing there

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_at...

Edit: just noticed the article lede says +50% since mid-18th century, I don't need to be interpreting graphs here lol. Either way, you missed an order of magnitude somewhere. But it also doesn't matter, because if 3% would have changed our habitat then it still would have been too much right?

What explains massive shifts in the climate? Why do we have ice ages? Why do they end?

The climate is millions of years old. We have at best 200 years of data.

If we are wrong about this Putin wins big time as Russia is sticking to its fossil fuel revenue sources and keeping the majority of the developing world on fossils.

Russia is turning Africa as we speak. Do you have any idea of what the implications are of Russia achieving global dominance, in alliance with China?